Betting buzz: College football bettors target windy conditions, drive totals down

Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our college football betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum and Doug Greenberg, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation throughout each week of the season. 

Key links: Sports betting home | DraftKings 

Sept. 24: Bettors target windy conditions, drive totals down

By David Purdum

Savvy bettors paid more attention to meteorologists than to Trinidad Chambliss or Arch Manning early in the week as the betting market on a marquee college football Saturday took shape.

Forecasts call for strong wings in the Northeast on Saturday, potentially impacting games such as Virginia Tech at Boston College and James Madison at Old Dominion. The totals on those games dropped six and five points respectively from the opening numbers, as action from influential bettors showed up quickly.

Chase Michaelson, who oversees college football odds for Circa Sports, told ESPN that he didn't put enough stock in the developing forecast and bettors took advantage, hitting the under on both games starting Sunday and continuing Monday. The Virginia Tech-Boston College total dropped from an opening 54 to 48. The James Madison-Old Dominion total fell all the way from 49.5 to 44 by Wednesday, before ticking back up to 45.

Forecasts change and their accuracy improves closer to game days, but Michaelson says bookmakers can't really afford to take a wait-and-see approach because bettors certainly don't.

"I think we have to sort of operate under the impression that a bad forecast is right and we can always adjust it," Michaelson said.

As of Thursday, the forecast for Virginia Tech-Boston College on Saturday in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, called for an 87% chance of rain with winds of more than 20 mph.

Similar winds are expected in Norfolk, Virginia, where Old Dominion hosts James Madison.

Weather is not expected to be as much of a factor in the high-profile SEC game this weekend, but the lines were moving.

Texas is down to a 4-point favorite over Tennessee at most sportsbooks. The Longhorns opened as high as -5.5. Florida was up to a 3.5-point favorite over Ole Miss. The Gators opened at -3 at most books.

Sept. 19: Chambliss the new Heisman favorite after beating LSU

By David Purdum

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss entered Saturday's big game against LSU as a second-tier Heisman contender. With 13-1 odds at DraftKings, he trailed five other players to win college football's most prestigious award.

By halftime of the Rebels' primetime game against LSU, Chambliss was the favorite.

Chambliss accounted for three touchdowns in leading Ole Miss to an emotional 32-24 win over LSU. He finished 33-of-48 passing for 363 yards with two passing touchdowns. His rushing touchdown broke a tie in the fourth quarter and helped lift the Rebels to a victory over coach Lane Kiffin and the visiting Tigers.

Chambliss' Heisman odds moved from 13-1 to +295, leapfrogging him over Miami quarterback Darian Mensah, who had been the favorite since Week 1.

Mensah completed his first 24 passes and finished 30-for-34 for 220 yards and three touchdowns in the Hurricanes' 33-20 win over Wake Forest on Friday. But it wasn't enough to hold off Chambliss.

Mensah is now the second-favorite at +340, followed by Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith (+900), Texas quarterback Arch Manning (+1200) and Miami receiver Malachi Toney (+1200).

Sept. 17: Sportsbooks adjust to unexpected LSU QB injury report

By David Purdum

The betting market appears unconvinced that LSU Tigers quarterback Sam Leavitt will miss Saturday's game at Ole Miss. Leavitt was unexpectedly listed as doubtful for the game on an injury report released Wednesday night, causing some sportsbooks to briefly halt betting on the game and adjust their odds.

The point spread went from LSU -3 to as low as -1 after the injury report that was released at approximately 8:10 p.m. ET. The line had settled back at LSU -2.5 as of Thursday morning.

Las Vegas-based sportsbook Circa Sports initially pulled the game off the board to assess the situation, before reducing the betting limits and reposting the Tigers as 1-point favorites.

"We let the bettors guide us," Chase Michaelson, who oversees college football odds for Circa Sports, told ESPN in a text message Wednesday night.

Michaelson added that the next limit bet the book received on the game was on LSU -2, causing him to move the line to -3 "to judge the Ole Miss appetite." A bettor took the Rebels +3, dropping the line back to 2.5.

Leavitt overcame three interceptions and accounted for four touchdowns -- three rushing -- in the Tigers' 45-14 win over Louisiana Tech last week. He spoke to reporters afterwards and did not appear to be in any discomfort. LSU coach Lane Kiffin did not mention that Leavitt was dealing with any injuries during a Monday news conference.

Freshman Husan Longstreet and sophomore Landen Clark are Leavitt's primary backups.

More money has been bet on LSU-Ole Miss than any other college football game at DraftKings. The game had attracted more than $2 million in trades on prediction market Kalshi as of Thursday morning.

Sept. 12: Michigan, Oklahoma State pummel bettors

By David Purdum

All week, the betting public couldn't get enough of two college football road favorites that were facing teams coming off ugly performances. In fact, by the time Saturday's noon Eastern Time games kicked off, more money was riding on Oklahoma (at Michigan) and Oregon (at Oklahoma State) than any other teams at multiple sportsbooks.

That money is staying with the bookmakers.

Bets poured in on the Sooners this week ahead of their game against a Michigan team that lucked out in a win over Western Michigan seven days ago. The Wolverines were small favorites over Oklahoma in the early lines released by some sportsbooks over the summer, but perceptions changed after their struggle with Western Michigan. When the new point spread was released last Sunday, the Sooners were 5.5-point favorites, and the betting public loaded up on Oklahoma.

On Friday, DraftKings reported that 96% of the money that had been wagered on the spread was on the Sooners. The sportsbook also noted that a Michigan outright victory would be one of their most lucrative decisions of the day.

Those familiar with the betting public's track record should've known what was coming next. Michigan never trailed and took down Oklahoma 17-10. It was only the beginning of a challenging start to Saturday for bettors.

On Saturday morning, BetMGM reported that Oklahoma had attracted more bets and more money than any other team. The second most popular bet? Oregon -23.5 against lowly Oklahoma State, losers of 21 straight games to FBS opponents, including last week to Tulsa. The Ducks were around -2400 favorites to win the game outright. Bettors didn't shy away from laying the hefty price.

A bettor with Caesars Sportsbook in Louisiana placed a $100,000 money-line bet on Oregon at -2,500, per Ben Fawkes of Yahoo Sports, for a chance to win a net $4,000 if the Ducks prevailed. At BetMGM, 95% of the money wagered on the outright winner was on Oregon, which was 57-0 straight-up as a favorite of 24 or more points since 1978.

Oklahoma State upset the Ducks 39-31.

"Solid results," one bookmaker told ESPN.