Don't be surprised if ... Kelce, Adams keep turning back the clock, Herbert rebounds

Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!

NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.

Don't be surprised if ... Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs in receptions and receiving yards, again

Perhaps this barely seems bold since Kelce has led the Kansas City Chiefs in these categories for four consecutive seasons, coinciding with WR Tyreek Hill leaving town. Then again, Kelce turns 37 years old in a few weeks. Tight ends tend not to catch both 90 passes in a season and surpass 1,000 receiving yards at that age, or really, most ages, and Kelce looks like he may do this for the sixth time -- though he hasn't done it since 2022. He is an older player who certainly has other stuff going on, like getting married recently and co-hosting a successful podcast, etc., and he boasts three Super Bowl rings and will be getting a call from the Hall of Fame when he is eligible.

It may shock people to know he was fantasy's No. 3 tight end last season, but he looks even better this season.

Fantasy managers hardly gravitated toward Kelce this season, as eight tight ends went earlier in ESPN ADP, including several I have already punted outside my rest-of-season top 10 (Kyle Pitts Sr., Harold Fannin Jr.). Kelce enters Week 3 fourth in tight end scoring, behind the Arizona Cardinals' Trey McBride, Buffalo Bills' Dalton Kincaid and New York Giants' Isaiah Likely. He looks rejuvenated, averaging 10.8 yards per target and 14.3 yards per catch, both higher than any full-season career mark. He broke off a 59-yard play in Week 1. He caught 101 yards worth of passes and a touchdown in Week 2. Kelce is one of only three tight ends to surpass 500 receiving yards in their age-36 season, joining Hall of Famers Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.

However, to be blunt, part of the reason Kelce has been able to lead the Chiefs in catches and yards since the Hill era ended is because QB Patrick Mahomes has lacked young wide receivers to target on a consistent basis. Rashee Rice is in his fourth season, Xavier Worthy his third. Rice has merely six catches through two games, and while he is a game-breaker, he has also been inconsistent and unreliable. Worthy is averaging a terrible 5.4 yards per catch. I just cannot see RB Kenneth Walker III continuing with this extraordinary volume, especially in the passing game. The Chiefs cannot treat him like last season's Christian McCaffrey. It is dangerous.

Anyway, perhaps Kelce delivers one more 90-catch, 1,000-yard season. It will be memorable, but also, a sign of the times around the league. Through two weeks, 14 players have 12 receptions, and five of them are tight ends. The Las Vegas Raiders' Brock Bowers, Chicago Bears' Colston Loveland, Detroit Lions' Sam LaPorta and Indianapolis Colts' Tyler Warren are not even among them!

One more thought on tight end: While I doubt anyone projects new/old Philadelphia Eagles TE Zach Ertz to produce big numbers with Dallas Goedert (knee) sidelined, I bet he does something this Monday (less than a week after being signed) versus the Bears to pique our interest. Ertz, 35, averaged 9.7 fantasy points per game (13 games, before tearing a knee) for last season's Washington Commanders, good for 19th at tight end. He caught 50 passes, four for touchdowns. Goedert led the Eagles and tied McBride with 11 touchdown receptions last season, easily most at the position. Tight end plays a key role in that offense. An active Ertz is a sneaky deep-league play.

Don't be surprised if ... Davante Adams leads the league in TD receptions, again

Perhaps it seems easy to write this after Adams torched the Giants for 195 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns Monday night, but I was thinking this a month ago, and nothing that happened in Week 1 in Australia dissuaded me. The Los Angeles Rams still boast a dominant offense. I eagerly gathered shares of Adams this season because he seemed underrated in drafts. Adams caught 14 touchdowns in 14 games for an awesome Rams offense last season, but many pointed to him turning 33 years old and how he averaged fewer than five receptions and 60 receiving yards per game last season as reasons to fade.

Adams scored three more receiving touchdowns than anyone else last season, and he didn't even play a full season. This occurred in part because QB Matthew Stafford played brilliantly, tossing 46 touchdown passes (12 more than anyone else!) and earning league MVP honors, but few believed he could replicate those numbers again. He's 38! I don't think anything that occurred in the Rams' blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers meant a thing, but perhaps dominating the Giants means little, too. The Rams are still a Super Bowl contender.

It was always going to be difficult for Stafford -- and Adams, for that matter -- to replicate their amazing 2025 seasons, and especially so if star WR Puka Nacua misses more games, but I see this offense leading the league in points again. We all overrated the Bears after their Week 1 performance, as even before QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) got hurt, they were being shut down by the Minnesota Vikings. The Bills and Lions possess awesome offenses. Who is going to stop QB Josh Allen from winning his second MVP award? Probably not Stafford, but why can't he lead the league in TD passes again? Why can't Adams dominate in the red zone again? These fellows are also not too old.

Frankly, the biggest threat to Adams scoring the most receiving touchdowns might be Seattle Seahawks cheat code WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I believe it was last October when I wrote, in this column, that Smith-Njigba would be the first to reach 2,000 receiving yards in a season. He fell 207 yards short. But, fair warning to my editors and JSN's health permitting, it sure feels like I will be writing that one again relatively soon.

Don't be surprised if ... Justin Herbert and the Chargers score myriad points against the Bills

This is the NFL. When something seems so obvious in this league, that is when the opposite tends to happen. A month ago, Chargers-Bills looked like an AFC banger, perhaps an AFC Championship game preview. Today, the 7-point line might feel OK based on the first two weeks, but it is too large. While Bills QB Josh Allen is off to a magnificent start statistically, Herbert has scored fewer fantasy points than QBs Jaxson Dart, Carson Wentz and Geno Smith -- and flex options Kalif Raymond, Darren Waller and Joshua Palmer.

C'mon, the 0-2 Chargers aren't this bad. Herbert passed for 5,000 yards a few seasons ago! He was a top-10 QB scorer last year! Genius Mike McDaniel is there, brilliantly offensively coordinating! Things will improve.

Herbert is the No. 5 most-dropped QB entering this weekend, which is a mistake because, while it's early, the Bills have permitted a top-five figure in fantasy points to QBs, RBs and WRs -- a unique trifecta! We do not rank Herbert as a top-10 play, but we could. I would play him over Bo Nix, Bryce Young and especially Kyler Murray. Why are fantasy managers trusting Murray? Because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just lost to the Cleveland Browns? Will Murray run? Will he even make it through the contest in one piece? Herbert will shred the Bills defense, probably lose the game something like 39-36 (and cover), because the Chargers tend to lose games in this brutal fashion. For our purposes, Herbert scores 24 fantasy points while WRs Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston (what about Tre' Harris?) and even TE Oronde Gadsden thrive.

One other prediction ...

The undefeated Raiders, fresh off stunning the Chargers, cover what feels like an unusually small line on the road against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are a darling team so far, and they are at home. The Raiders cannot possibly keep winning, right? Well, they rush the passer, play responsible defense and control the clock. They have an experienced QB, a likely top-10 RB, and wait until Bowers gets going. The Raiders may not be totally legit, but I don't see top overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza playing for a long time, if at all this season. Kirk Cousins is competent. Mendoza is curiously rostered in more ESPN redraft leagues than Jacoby Brissett, Michael Penix Jr. and Jameis Winston. Think about that for a minute.