Ultimate fantasy hockey draft board: How the first 20 picks should play out

While player projections are valuable tools in helping forecast an individual player's output, they should also be treated with a critical eye and subjective view. These, again useful, numbers are spit out by someone's projection system as a large data set looking for the most likely outcome based on a number of factors, known and otherwise estimated. There's still plenty of room for personal prognostication and listening to your inner fantasy voice.  All you can be is prepared to make a decision when you're on the clock in your draft.

With that in mind, here are my first 20 draft selections from any spot, listed in descending order. As usual, these picks run in step with ESPN Fantasy's default points league, rewarding the following categories:

Skaters:

• Goals = 2 points
• Assists = 1 point
• Shots and hits = 0.1 points
• Blocked shots and special teams points = 0.5 points

Goaltenders:

• Wins = 4 points
• OT losses = 1 point
• Shutouts = 3 points
• Saves = 0.2 points
• Goals against = -2 points

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To avoid repetition, I'm skipping commentary for the first quartet of elite skaters, as they're already under the fantasy microscope as prospective top draft picks overall.  These guys will go in some order at the start of any draft.  If one drops to you, don't overthink it, just hit draft.   The real decisions start at pick No. 5.

Draft Slot 1: Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche

Draft Slot 2: Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning

Draft Slot 3: Macklin Celebrini, F, San Jose Sharks

Draft Slot 4: Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers

Draft Slot 5: Jason Robertson, F, Dallas Stars

The added incentive of playing on a rich, one-year contract while entering his competitive prime isn't the only reason to select Robertson with a first-round pick. But it's also something to consider, after recognizing the Dallas winger banked 96 in 2025-26 after two "disappointing" 80-point campaigns. If you're worried the 27-year-old will be hard-pressed to near the century mark once more, remember he collected 109 points in 2022-23. Plus, Robertson finished third in shots and fifth in power-play points this past campaign, his fourth complete 82-game season in a row.

Draft Slot 6: David Pastrnak, F, Boston Bruins

Not to slight Elias Lindholm, Pavel Zacha or Morgan Geekie, but coach Marco Sturm could probably throw anybody on the ice with the star winger and he'd still put up more points than just about everyone else. Because that's exactly what Pastrnak has done since his first full season a decade ago. Into triple-digits four years running in which he's averaged 107 points (despite missing five games last year), the 30-year-old remains a reliable, top-tier fantasy gem. One who will score closer to 40 goals again after last year's anomalous sum of 29 on 11.1% shooting percentage, his lowest since his rookie year.

Draft Slot 7: Kirill Kaprizov, F, Minnesota Wild

Remember when we were talkin' Rocket after Kaprizov scored 17 goals in 26 games before December this past season? Then he slowed down to score a mere 45 total along with 44 assists in 78 contests. Since the completion of his rookie season, the 17-million-dollar-man has averaged 1.24 points/game, sitting behind only McDavid, Kucherov, MacKinnon, Draisaitl and Pastrnak. That's some good company.

Draft Slot 8: Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs

First of all, ye olde eye test already suggests the Leafs sniper is feeling better than he has in quite some time. Not only does he look faster and looser in preseason play, post-knee and whatever other injury, but the stopwatch backs up that perception. As Nick Alberga, host of the "Leafs Morning Take" podcast puts it, Matthews no longer looks like he's skating with a piano on his back.

The there's the relaxed smile Leafs fans haven't seen too often of late. Toronto's captain appears significantly more optimistic after new GM John Chayka brought in several new bodies, including goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, defenseman Darren Raddysh and a gaggle of fresh forwards. Having this year's No. 1 draft pick Gavin McKenna as a potential top-six linemate is another bonus. It was only a couple of years ago that Matthews scored 69 goals and 107 points. If not for the injury history, he would serve as a top-five pick. I still like the gamble here.

Draft Slot 9: Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Tampa Bay Lightning

The league favorite to make more starts than anyone else, and for a great team, Tampa Bay's No. 1 is in a tier by himself as far as true elite fantasy goalies are concerned. With a good gaggle of fantastic forwards still available after the turn, using this pick to nail down the most reliable in the fantasy biz feels like a smart choice.

Draft Slot 10: Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche

Once the fantasy heavyweights up front are off the board and the league's top netminder is secured, it makes sense to corral the best available on the blue line. Especially when in position to grab another very good forward with the 11th pick in conventional snake drafts. In a full, healthy season, no other defenseman will accrue you more fantasy points than the two-time Norris Trophy winner in Colorado.

Draft Slot 11: Leon Draisaitl, F, Edmonton Oilers

Makar/Draisaitl as a one-two fantasy punch? Proof that winding up with the last draft selection in a 10-team league isn't always a lousy deal. The Oilers' other superstar failed to crack 100 points in 2025-26 for the first time in forever, falling just short with 97 because he played only 65 games. Right. In addition to minor durability concerns -- 28 absences the past two seasons -- the only fantasy factor pushing Draisaitl out of the top 10 is Mike Babcock's more egalitarian approach to running out his lines. Which I may be fussing too much about. The 30-year-old is still going to cook, whether he skates on a top line with McDavid or not.

Draft Slot 12: Cole Caufield, F, Montreal Canadiens

"More chances to shoot the puck." How can you not love Caufield's response when asked his thoughts on playing 84 games this campaign? Increasing his goal total year over year, the 25-year-old finished second only to MacKinnon with 51 in 2025-26. Skating alongside one of the league's best (and still mildly underrated) centers in Nick Suzuki, Caufield might score 55 this season.

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Draft Slot 13: Nick Suzuki, F, Montreal Canadiens

One of the sturdiest skaters in the game, the Canadiens captain hasn't missed a single match since entering the league in 2019. Seeing his points total rise by 10-plus season over season since 2022-23, and with Caufield riding shotgun at even-strength and on the power play, Suzuki broke through the 100-mark for the first time this past campaign. It won't be the last. The reigning Selke Trophy winner also finished top-10 in blocked shots amongst forwards in 2025-26, which further helps explain why he averaged a dazzling 2.5 fantasy points/contest in ESPN Fantasy standard leagues.

Draft Slot 14: Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers

The greatest threat to bang out 100 points from the blue line, Bouchard doesn't block as many shots or throw his body around like other fantasy defenders. But if McDavid's and Draisaitl's power-play running mate once again ends up flirting with the century mark, you won't care about those other categories.

Draft Slot 15: Matt Boldy, F, Minnesota Wild

Remember his showing at the Olympics? Crushed Canadian hockey fans certainly do. Top 20 in NHL scoring, Boldy finished 10th in goals, 15th in shots, and 13th in power-play points in 2025-26. Best part? At 25 years old, the Wild winger is just getting going.

Draft Slot 16: Wyatt Johnston, F, Dallas Stars

Adding to his production total year over year since entering the league, Johnston ranked fifth in goals (45) and fourth in power-play points (42) this past season. If the 23-year-old -- who has yet to miss a regular-season game -- remains on his current trajectory, he'll pocket 100 points in 2026-27.

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Draft Slot 17: Martin Necas, F, Colorado Avalanche

If I can't have MacKinnon -- who should be off the table after pick Numero Uno -- I'll happily take his lucky linemate at this stage of the draft. One of only eight skaters to crack triple digits in 2025-26, Necas may have scored the quietest 100 points in recent memory. After erupting for 38 goals in 78 games, he could score 40 this season.

Draft Slot 18: Filip Forsberg, F, Nashville Predators

Even when his team stinks (see: 2024-25), the veteran winger still manages to put up solid numbers. "Mr. Balanced" as far as fantasy stats are concerned, Forsberg checks all the boxes a little bit better than most. He doesn't need to amass 100 points to serve as a top-15 fantasy forward. Plus, after sitting out a good chunk of the season in 2022-23, the 32-year-old hasn't missed a game in three years.

Draft Slot 19: Moritz Seider, D, Detroit Red Wings

While the Red Wings defender won't put up the same scoring numbers as other top-tier fantasy blueliners, he makes up for it with a hearty helping of blocked shots -- fourth-most in 2025-26 -- and hits. Plus, 60 points, with almost half of them counting on the power play, on 187 shots from a defenseman, is nothing at which to sneeze.

Draft Slot 20: Logan Thompson, G, Washington Capitals

Consider the ex-Golden Knight underrated-no-more after his second successful season in Washington. Thompson finished third in total fantasy points in 2025-26 behind Andrei Vasilevskiy and Scott Wedgewood. Now, following a flurry of offseason moves, the Capitals as a whole are an improved team, projected by many to finish second in the Metropolitan Division. If Vasilevskiy is off the board, I want Washington's clear No. 1.

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