MLB 2026 playoff intel: Bold predictions, dangerous teams, more

With less than a week until the 2026 MLB playoffs begin, our baseball insiders have been cultivating their sources and are ready to break down the questions, teams and themes that will shape October -- even before the final 12-team postseason field is set.

What is the boldest take we've heard from an MLB exec? Is a Los Angeles Dodgers three-peat coming? Can the New York Yankees make a deep run -- with or without Aaron Judge? And who are the sleeper teams and under-the-radar players to watch?

Here's the latest intel our MLB experts are hearing as Jeff Passan, Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers, Jorge Castillo and Alden Gonzalez empty their notebooks heading into the playoffs.

What is the boldest prediction you've heard from an MLB exec or scout?

Olney: The Padres are going to win the World Series for the first time in their history, with just about everything trending in the right direction. "Once you get into the postseason with all of the built-in off days, that's going to help their bullpen -- which is the best," he noted. The Padres' starting pitching is the team's biggest concern, but as the Dodgers demonstrated in 2024, you can win with three or four functional starters who are backed by a deep bullpen.

Passan: The Red Sox might be the No. 5 seed, but they're going to win the American League pennant. Since the All-Star break, one evaluator pointed out, the Red Sox have the best offense in the AL. They're also an MLB-best in fielding independent pitching, a predictive metric that suggests they will continue to throw well. It's a deep bullpen. It's a solid-enough rotation. It's a productive lineup. And, perhaps most helpful of all, it's the AL, where the path to the World Series is a sandy beach compared to the jungle of the National League.

Do MLB insiders think the Dodgers will turn it on in October again like they did the past two postseasons?

Gonzalez: The general sentiment about the Dodgers seems to be this: They'll be the favorites until proven otherwise. That's what they've elevated to. They're too talented, too deep, and they've become too adept at navigating seasons to have many detractors, regardless of whatever adversity they might face.

These past couple of weeks have offered a perfect snapshot. The Dodgers' offense was a serious concern, but now -- with Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez and Kyle Tucker on a heater, and Shohei Ohtani back -- not so much. Their bullpen was, too, but Edwin Diaz has looked sharp since coming back, Roki Sasaki could once again become a weapon and Emmet Sheehan might be too. Regardless, their rotation is widely expected to be an equalizer.

Passan: They're still the favorites, which is saying something when considering the fatigue that often attaches itself to dynastic teams. But the Dodgers have shown enough vulnerabilities that a number of evaluators believe another team will represent the NL in the World Series. One GM's sentiment -- "I'd take every NL playoff team over every AL playoff team," he said -- speaks to the sort of competition the Dodgers will face.

And with so many question marks about how Ohtani and Andy Pages and Blake Snell will fare after returning on the eve of the postseason with no rehab assignments, the Dodgers are not nearly the sure thing they've been in recent postseasons. At the same time, they remain, top to bottom, the most talented team in the game, and nobody would be surprised if they win their third consecutive World Series.

How much faith does the industry have in the Rays and Brewers turning the best regular-season records into World Series appearances?

Olney: There is more faith in the Brewers than I've ever heard, because the general perception is that they are just a better, deeper team than the group that was bulldozed by the Dodgers in last year's postseason -- and they've got the best starting pitcher, in Jacob Misiorowski. "I think he might hit 107 [mph] in the playoffs," speculated one evaluator, assessing the impact of the adrenaline, expectations and Misiorowski's heightened competitiveness. And generally, there is a lot of respect for the Rays, particularly when measured against the low bar of the American League.

Rogers: As much as ever. The Brewers have more believers this year than last simply based on the top of their rotation led by Misiorowski and Logan Henderson. Their depth there is better as well. Robert Gasser has come on strong while rubber-armed Aaron Ashby is a key bullpen guy to go along with Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill.

On the Rays side, their draw for the postseason isn't perfect -- according to one insider -- but if the Yankees and Red Sox play three games in the wild-card round, it'll set things up nicely for them in the division series. After that, they'll be heavy favorites to get to the Fall Classic.

Given Aaron Judge's health questions, do those in the game think the Yankees will make another deep October run?

Castillo: Opinions vary around the majors. One front office executive said the Yankees have "no chance" of making a World Series run without Judge. Another said he believes it's possible behind the pitching staff, though the executive added that the bullpen is seemingly running on fumes down the stretch.

Anything can happen in a three-game series. The Red Sox nearly bounced New York last year, falling short in Game 3 thanks to Cam Schlittler's sterling performance.

After that, the Rays are reminiscent of the Blue Jays club that gave the Yankees trouble last year -- from the regular season through eliminating them in four games in the ALDS. Not having Judge undoubtedly hurts the Yankees' chances of surviving the gauntlet.

Olney: It wouldn't be a surprise if they emerge in the American League -- and nor would it be a surprise if they got knocked out in the first round. Without Judge, they are vulnerable against left-handed pitching, and Boston is loaded with lefties.

If they do survive the Red Sox, then they'll open the division series on the road in the Trop, where they don't match up well; the Rays' style of play on their home surface caused all kinds of problems for the Yankees this year.

That all said, the Yankees have the best pitching of the AL teams; they have a good lineup (albeit not great); and their defense has improved.

Which other teams do MLB insiders feel could be this October's most dangerous?

Rogers: As easy as it would be to pick an AL team to make a surprising run simply because the draw there is softer, experts like the Padres as a dangerous lower-seeded team. They have a good playoff formula now that the rotation has some help and the lineup is hitting for power. In fact, San Diego leads MLB in home runs in September. And of course, they have that vaunted bullpen.

With Aaron Judge on the shelf, the Red Sox are becoming a favorite pick among experts in the AL. Others point to Yankees pitching as their key to advancing. It's really good behind Cy Young fave Cam Schlittler.

Gonzalez: The Phillies are often a popular pick for this question, and this year it's no different. They have obvious flaws, from the makeup of their bullpen to their overall defense to, mostly, the status of Jesus Luzardo. But they have a bevy of top-shelf stars, the type that tend to make a major impact on October. They have the experience of having navigated these stakes as a group many times. They have a raucous home environment, one that arguably trumps any in the sport. And, lately, they have Aaron Nola looking like his vintage self.

Still: it's hard to dismiss the Luzardo factor in all this. He changes everything. "If he's healthy," a rival front office executive said, "they're my answer." If not, he added, the Brewers are the better, more well-rounded team. Luzardo is that important.

Who are some under-the-radar players with industry buzz as potential postseason stars?

Castillo: Rays outfielder Victor Mesa Jr., Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers and Padres first baseman Ty France. Mesa, dumped in a trade by the Marlins in February, surfaced from Triple-A in late May to join Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda as dangerous bats. Bauers and France are veterans who lead their respective teams in wRC+ this season -- indicating, at least by that measure, that they've been the best hitters on their clubs -- and have been overshadowed.

Passan: In an era when the average fastball is 94.6 mph and pitchers throw it around 30% of the time, Cleveland left-hander Parker Messick and Milwaukee right-hander Logan Henderson are anomalies.

Messick, 25, is a favorite of scouts. He throws a four-seamer that averages 94 mph more than 40% of the time, and despite the relative lack of velocity, it's been a banger of a pitch, the third-most-valuable heater in MLB behind Jacob Misiorowski's and Cam Schlittler's.

Henderson leans even more heavily on his fastball (45.7%) even though it's slower (93.1 mph) and it has the sixth-highest run value.

Why do they work so well? Messick and Henderson both have exceptional control, and as much as velo rules the modern game, there is still room for pitching artistry, and they personify it.