Projecting the NHL's leap-forward, regression candidates

Every year, fantasy hockey managers look for players who could see a massive jump in production to get value in later rounds. They are also keenly in tune with "buyer beware" situations on players coming off stupendous seasons.

Casual NHL fans want to understand reasonable expectations for developing young players, and drop-offs after great seasons. I've identified a dozen players who fall into one of those two categories for 2026-27.

To qualify for this list, a player cannot be a rookie. Many players projected to take a meaningful step forward are in their final years of their entry-level contracts or in the first year of their first standard contract. Many players projected to take a step back enjoyed career years in 2025-26, with elevated shooting percentages or roles they are unlikely to maintain.

How to watch the 2026-27 NHL season on ESPN networks -- including 100 exclusive games and the out-of-market package (over 1,050 games).

Leap forward candidates

Matvei Michkov, RW, Philadelphia Flyers

Age: 21 | Contract AAV: $950,000
2025-26 stats: 81 GP | 20 G | 31 A

I've been on the Michkov train for a very long time, and after what seems to be a very impressive summer, Michkov seems primed for a true breakout.

He is rightfully having to earn the trust of Rick Tocchet, but the Flyers absolutely need a more balanced offense to avoid a step back this season.

Michkov's talent is undeniable, and a summer in which he prepared his body for the grind of the NHL season should see him able to execute more effectively. At his best, Michkov can be a top-six difference-maker at even strength and a reliable power-play option. His production will directly relate to the opportunity he earns -- and is hopefully given.

There is every reason to be excited and every reason for the Flyers to reward their young talent with greater opportunity. If Tocchet gives him offensive opportunities and chances to show his development, Michkov could crack the point-per-game threshold and establish himself as a go-to offensive producer.

Matthew Wood, RW, Nashville Predators

Age: 21 | Contract AAV: $950,000
2025-26 stats: 71 GP | 17 G | 13 A

One of the key players of Nashville's rebuild enters his second season primed for a much bigger opportunity. Wood is expected to play regular top-six minutes with Filip Forsberg and get a long look on the top power-play unit.

Given Wood's physical makeup, he has the package to be a power forward with significant goal scoring potential. His net-front presence on the power play will be a nuisance to opposing goaltenders, and his ability to drive off the rush should pose problems for defenders.

Centering Forsberg provides Wood a great opportunity to produce offense and cement himself as a top-six center. Accounting for increased ice time, power-play opportunity and expected improvement of the team around him, Wood's production could reasonably rise to 55 points, nearly double his rookie season (30 points). He's not the only player who could break out in Nashville, but Wood seems to be the most reasonable bet to take a tangible leap in his offensive production given the opportunity.

Gabe Perreault, RW, New York Rangers

Age: 21 | Contract AAV: $941,667
2025-26 stats: 49 GP | 12 G | 15 A

Finding yourself on the top line to start the season is a recipe for a breakout. The Rangers seem poised to give their budding young star a real opportunity to become a bona fide offensive threat in his second NHL season.

The tremendously talented winger will see a sharp increase in ice time at even strength and might play his way onto the top power-play unit at various points through the season. His goal-scoring ability should suit Mika Zibanejad's playmaking ability, and the two of them should develop significant chemistry.

The Rangers desperately need their young players to contribute meaningful offense to make the best of what is left in the careers of Zibanejad, Adam Fox, Igor Shesterkin and J.T. Miller. Perreault is critical to that, and thus the opportunity presented to him is a recipe for breakout success. If Perreault plays top-line minutes and gets power-play time -- he's projected to score 23 goals and 60 points -- it will be a major step forward in his development.

Michael Misa, C, San Jose Sharks

Age: 19 | Contract AAV: $986,250
2025-26 stats: 45 GP | 9 G | 12 A

Misa might see the biggest jump in his production this season. Given the trajectory of San Jose and his development, there is a real chance the young Shark triples his rookie production. Misa enters his second season after putting on significant muscle, and training with fellow Sharks Macklin Celebrini and Sam Dickinson this summer.

It is highly likely that Misa takes over Alexander Wennberg's spot as the second-line center and becomes the primary weapon on the second power-play unit. In a 45-game rookie season, Misa tallied 21 points, nearly a half point per game.

There is every reason to believe that Misa could produce 65-plus points in a full season in which his ice time should increase by 20%. Misa's development should continue on defense as well, taking a major step to becoming a two-way play-driving center.

With development on both ends of the ice and increased opportunity, Misa's breakout season could be two-fold as he becomes one of the best young players to watch in the NHL.

Luke Evangelista, RW, New Jersey Devils

Age: 24 | Contract AAV: $3 million
2025-26 stats: 81 GP | 121 G | 44 A

One of the shrewdest acquisitions of the summer was made by the Devils. Evangelista will get significant offensive opportunity in New Jersey's top six, and given the left-handed offensive talent already on the roster, his right-handed shooting will bring some balance.

He's likely to get an extended opportunity on the top power-play unit because of Sheldon Keefe's desire for a right-handed shooter to complement the unit. Evangelista's style is going to create space and offensive opportunities for his linemates, by winning puck battles and getting pucks to scorers in dangerous areas.

He might take time to adjust to the offensive system in Jersey, meaning the points might not come right away. But he's highly underrated as a two-way player that makes him the perfect fit beside Nico Hischier and certainly will be relied upon in key situations on both ends of the ice, providing value as he finds his offensive step. Evangelista's step forward should not only see a step forward in production but some recognition as one of the league's quality defensive wingers.

Jimmy Snuggerud, RW, St. Louis Blues

Age: 22 | Contract AAV: $950,000
2025-26 stats: 70 GP | 21 G | 30 A

Snuggerud finds himself on the right wing of what has the potential to be one of the best lines in the NHL, this season. Paired with Dylan Holloway and Robert Thomas, Snuggerud will be the beneficiary of Holloway's speed and successful puck retrievals and battles, as well as Thomas' playmaking ability. Snuggerud is a perfect fit to play with those two and it is more than conceivable that he capitalizes on the opportunity by scoring more than 30 goals.

Snuggerud had a wonderful rookie season and given his trajectory and his quality of teammate, he's going to be one of the go-to scoring threats for the Blues for the foreseeable future. With a step forward in development, Snuggerud should also help a power play that struggled last season, and easily top his five power-play goals in 2025-26.

This combination of factors should see Snuggerud cement himself as a top-line offensive threat capable of producing 80-plus points.

Honorable mention

Nicholas Robertson, LW, Pittsburgh Penguins

Age: 25 | Contract AAV: $3.25 million
2025-26 stats: 78 GP | 16 G | 16 A

He's playing next to Sidney Crosby. For as long as that happens, it is reasonable to assume that his production would be leaps and bounds better than previous seasons. The list of players whose production rose astronomically after finding chemistry with Crosby is long. There is no need to read into it more than that.

Regression candidates

Anthony Mantha, RW, New Jersey Devils

Age: 32 | Contract AAV: $4.75 million
2025-26 stats: 81 GP | 33 G | 31 A

The last time Mantha had a season with more than 20 goals, the world did not know about COVID-19. So yes, it has been a while.

Mantha is coming off a 33-31-64 season, far surpassing his career highs. Last season was the second of Mantha's career in which he played 80 or more games; he has struggled to stay healthy. The interesting part about Mantha is that he has enjoyed three consecutive seasons with a shooting percentage over 20%. Though that might not be his true shooting talent, he has sustained it for a large enough sample size that it is reasonable to assume he is an elite shooter.

This season, Mantha will be afforded the opportunity to play in New Jersey's top six, centered by one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier. His placement on this list is largely due to his projection of playing only 71 games this season. He's going to get less power-play time than he did last season, because the Devils' top unit plays a significant portion of the power play, and an output of seven power-play goals is highly unlikely to sustain.

There's a very likely situation that Mantha's shooting percentage remains high, but his production falls to about 50 points, which would be around a 20% regression.

Pavel Zacha, C, Boston Bruins

Age: 29 | Contract AAV: $4.75 million
2025-26 stats: 78 GP | 30 G | 35 A

Coming off a career season, in which his goal total was nearly 50% better than his previous high, Zacha is highly likely to see a return to his 20-goal norm. Hitting the 30-goal mark was buoyed by a shooting percentage of 22.9%, one of the highest in the NHL last season and 6.4 percentage points higher than his previous career-high shooting percentage of 16.5%.

My model projects him to score 23 goals if he retains the second-line role for Boston. If he is surpassed by Fraser Minten, it falls to 20. Moreover, Boston is expected to be in a tougher spot this season with the improvements of Buffalo and Montreal, and the expected return to competitiveness of Florida and Toronto. The games that Zacha plays will be tighter, given the strength of the Atlantic Division.

Of the regression candidates, Zacha is most likely to see the biggest step back given the combination of shooting luck and expected role.

Darren Raddysh, D, Toronto Maple Leafs

Age: 30 | Contract AAV: $8.5 million
2025-26 stats: 73 GP | 22 G | 48 A

Raddysh is going to have the basically the same offensive opportunity in Toronto that he was afforded last season in Tampa Bay. He will run the top power-play unit and be depended on to play top-pair minutes and generate offense from the back end. Expecting Raddysh to produce near a point-per-game pace is wholly unreasonable.

Raddysh performed at his best with a strong defensive partner that allowed him to take risks and drive play. With the Leafs, a healthy Chris Tanev or Jake McCabe would be the closest to replicating the partnership he had in Tampa Bay. Without that, Raddysh's defensive load would increase, which will depress his offensive involvement and production.

Furthermore, Raddysh benefitted from one of the best power-play players of the generation in Nikita Kucherov. The Leafs do not have a dual threat of that level. Auston Matthews and William Nylander are primary shooters, but neither is the dual-threat passer and shooter that Kucherov is, making them more predictable. Raddysh will play with extraordinarily talented players in Toronto, but equaling his career-high point total (after doubling it from the previous season) is rarely sustainable for nonsuperstar players.

Reasonable expectations would have Raddysh in the midteens for goals and high 50s in total points. Though that's still among the game's best, it is a significant step back from a near point-per-game season in 2025-26.

Nick Schmaltz, C, Utah Mammoth

Age: 30 | Contract AAV: $8 million
2025-26 stats: 82 GP | 33 G | 41 A

Schmaltz is coming off a career season in which he scored 33 goals and 74 points, a 44% increase in goal-scoring output over his previous career high of 23. When healthy, Schmaltz is a true talent 25-27 goal scorer.

Heading into this season, Schmaltz is going to battle a few forces against him. His shooting percentage and regression to his true talent is likely to lead to a drop into the 60s in points. More importantly, Logan Cooley could ascend to the top-line center role in Utah in 2026-27. Combine that with the addition of Vincent Trocheck in the offseason, and Schmaltz is likely to see a reduction in ice time by 2½ to 3 minutes per game from his 2025-26 average of 19:43.

Utah's center depth took a meaningful step forward with the Trocheck acquisition, and should balance how the top lines are deployed. The combination of each of these factors is likely to lead to a 15% reduction in offensive production, with a projected total of 26 goals and 63 points.

Wyatt Johnston, C, Dallas Stars

Age: 23 | Contract AAV: $8.4 million
2025-26 stats: 82 GP | 45 G | 41 A

The Stars might take a step back as a whole this season. Whether they do or don't, the likelihood of Johnston scoring 27 power-play goals again is low.

Johnston is an excellent player and the drop-off in power-play production is not an indictment of him as a player. It's more that those types of power-play numbers are generally not repeatable by the game's elite. For reference, Alex Ovechkin's career high is 25 power-play goals and he is the greatest goal scorer in the history of the sport. He topped Johnston's 42 power-play points twice in his 21-year career. The notion that Johnston would be able to outpace the game's greatest goal scorer on the power play is not one based in reality.

Johnston's play and value to the Stars is unlikely to regress given his age and talent, but his production rate is likely to regress. Forty-two of Johnston's 86 points in 2025-26 came on the power play, where a more sustainable output would see Johnston notch 30 power-play points.

Beyond the power play, a shooting percentage of 21.8% is likely to regress to 17%, seeing Johnston's goal total dropping to the mid-30s. Combine those factors and a healthy Roope Hintz to carry some of the offensive load, it is conceivable that Johnston's production suffers a 12% drop-off, roughly 11 points.