College football Week 4 best bets: Plays to make on Missouri, Indiana, Ole Miss and more

Three weeks into the college football season, we're starting to build data ... though a lot less certainty on what that data actually means. Blowouts against FCS schools and overmatched opponents can make an offense look unstoppable or a defense look airtight. 

Week 4 brings more conference play, which means tougher matchups and a better chance to see which early impressions hold up. 

The lesson this week is knowing when to back off. If an under has dropped two points or an over has climbed three, I'm not going to pretend it's still the same bet. Live to bet another week.

Here's what Mark Zinno and I have for Week 4 of the college football season.

Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Missouri (+6.5) at Mississippi State

Mississippi State has the more dangerous mobile quarterback in Kamario Taylor -- a potential Heisman hopeful -- and the more explosive rushing offense. However, Missouri owns the clearest trench advantage.

Taylor has been outstanding, but his pressure numbers are misleading. Taylor is 8-of-18 for 192 yards under pressure, which means his production is driven by explosive outcomes in a tiny sample, not consistently controlled quarterback play. The Tigers have a top-15 pass rush capable of testing that. This is easily the toughest defense Taylor has faced.

Taylor can threaten Missouri with his legs plus he's been excellent attacking deep and intermediate areas. Still, if Missouri contains him in the pocket and creates pressure without sacrificing coverage integrity, his passing efficiency should decline.

Missouri QB Austin Simmons is the better pure passer who thrives when blitzed, but his weakness is pressure. The counter is that Mississippi State is in the bottom 10 in the country for pressures and sacks, while Missouri ranks second in pass protection. The Bulldogs are the least equipped to expose Simmons. 

Army at Temple (OVER 48.5)

With the Owls coming off a 260-yard rushing game, Temple has a real path to points on the ground against Army's No. 104 run defense and No. 110 tackling grade. Army should move the ball, even against Temple's stronger run defense, as the Owls will be tested as the game goes on. Army calls rushing plays at an 80% clip -- the most in the FBS.

It's Temple's red zone record that has me on the over. Opponents have scored eight touchdowns in 12 trips. I wouldn't use Temple's 48-49 game against Toledo as the template, because Toledo threw for 429 yards. However, the over case here is that both teams can finish enough long drives to hit this total.

Ole Miss (+125) at Florida

Florida's offense earned respect after scoring 44 points at Auburn. Its defense is where I have questions. Auburn threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns against the Gators, and now they face Trinidad Chambliss, who has already produced against both Louisville and LSU. Ole Miss has played the tougher schedule and allowed touchdowns on just three of nine opponent red zone trips. The Rebels have a credible path to winning, even if Florida moves the ball.

Rebels RB Makhi Frazier is expected back, while Kewan Lacy's availability could give Ole Miss another way to attack. Lacy ran for 224 yards against Florida last year, though I'm not counting on a repeat while he remains a game-time decision.

The spread has swung from Ole Miss favored by 16.5 at home last season to Florida favored by three at home. The venue explains some of that, but I think the market is giving Florida's defense too much credit. I'd rather take Ole Miss to win at +125 than take three points I don't think I'll need. The more conservative approach, of course, is taking the +3 spread.

Zinno's best bets

Indiana team total OVER 34.5

The Hoosiers welcome Northwestern for their first Big Ten matchup of the season. I'm not crazy about the three-touchdown spread here, but the Indiana offense should have a lot of success against a questionable Wildcats defense. Josh Hoover has thrown 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions through the first three games. They are converting on 48% of their third down conversions facing a Wildcats defense that is 70th in the nation in third down defense. 

Furthermore, the Hoosiers defense -- which will be the first real test for Northwestern -- will create all sorts of extra opportunities for the Indiana offense. I get the better coach in Curt Cignetti, who shows zero let up against opponents and a Friday night home game. Indiana dropped 41 on the Wildcats in Evanston last season and they should do it again at home.

Michigan State (+5.5)

The Spartans host Nebraska in East Lansing. I'm surprised that Nebraska is this big of a road favorite here. This is the first conference game for the Cornhuskers and the first road game for them as well. 

Michigan State lost 27-10 to Notre Dame last week and should be in position for a bounce-back here at home. During Pat Fitzgerald's tenure at Northwestern, he went 58-45-2 (56.3%) against the spread as an underdog. Matt Rhule is 2-8 straight up in true road games and dating back to 2021, Nebraska is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite, including 0-4 under Rhule.

USC team total UNDER 30.5 (-135)

USC and Oregon meet in southern California. There's a lot more on the line here for the Ducks as they already have a loss after being upset by Oklahoma State. The history in this spot for USC isn't on their side. You have to go back to 2016 for the last time the Trojans eclipsed 30 in a game against Oregon, regardless of location. 

Over the last three seasons under Lincoln Riley, the Trojans are just 3-10 against ranked opponents. USC's defense will once again take center stage as they struggle against legit offenses. If USC is playing from behind here, that's going to help Oregon control this game. Dan Lanning will be charged with his defense playing much better than it did against the Pokes in Stillwater.

Arkansas (-7)

I've been staring at this game for a while now and everything keeps pointing me to the Hogs. 

Tulsa is a little overrated in this matchup, as their 24-10 win over Oklahoma State looks more like a mirage in the box score. They were out-gained in that game, were just 1/11 on the third down, had over 100 yards in penalties, missed two field goals and were the beneficiary of four turnovers. We also know that the Cowboys are a much better team as they beat Oregon the following week. Tulsa is also starting their backup quarterback Dexter Williams II for the second consecutive game as Baylor Hayes recovers from a knee injury. 

Arkansas is off to a slow start, but they also played two teams currently ranked in the top 15 in the country in Utah on the road and Georgia. A large majority of the teams across the nation lose both those games. There's a major upheaval brewing in Fayetteville and they badly need a win. The look ahead line for this game was over two touchdowns, presenting major value here on the Razorbacks. It feels like a must-win spot and if they don't get it done here at home, changes could come quicker than expected.