Top-seeded Lynx heavy favorites for WNBA title entering playoffs

The Minnesota Lynx will head into the 2026 WNBA playoffs as the favorites to win the title -- one of several surprises from before the season, according to the odds.

Minnesota tops the WNBA Finals odds board at +115, a distinct improvement from the fifth-best +800 odds the Lynx had coming into the 2026 campaign. The Las Vegas Aces are next at +475, followed by the Golden State Valkyries at +550 -- another surprise, given that the 2025 expansion team entered its second season of play with long 45-1 odds to win the championship, according to DraftKings lines.

A pair of ankle injuries to franchise player Napheesa Collier kept the Lynx from being a preseason favorite despite their contending pedigree, but what pushed them into stand-alone favorite status was the emergence of likely Rookie of the Year Olivia Miles, forcing bookmakers to move the lines when Minnesota started hot and never looked back.

"They showed early on how good they were, and then it was like, 'OK, well, they're this good and they're getting Collier back,'" Caesars Sportsbook pro basketball lead David Lieberman told ESPN. "The market, we all adjusted down on them pretty quickly compared to what they were preseason."

The Lynx were actually bigger favorites earlier in the final weeks of the regular season, reaching odds-on status, but lengthened to their current level once the playoff picture was solidified Thursday night.

Their title pursuit will begin with a series against the New York Liberty, who began the season favored to win the title at +220 but are now a much longer 14-1, per DraftKings odds. Bookmakers say there hasn't been a lot of action this season on the disappointing squad, but they are paying attention to the team's championship potential.

"At 14-1, there's not a lot of interest," DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "In Round 1, I wouldn't count any of these teams out. I mean, you could see upsets, I don't think there's going to be any big surprise if they do happen. And the Liberty, they've won it before. They know how to win, they know what playing in the playoffs is all about."

The Liberty are +280 in their series with the Lynx, who are -350.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the biggest liability across the sportsbook marketplace is the Indiana Fever, who go into the postseason with +950 odds to win it all. Given the immense popularity of the squad -- to the tune of 25% of the handle at DraftKings -- and the relatively long odds they had at times this season, the caution adds up quickly for sportsbooks.

"The Fever, I feel like as long as Caitlin Clark is there, are probably always going to be our liability, our worst-case scenario for the championship futures," Lieberman said. "So they are No. 1 by a decent chunk."

BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee echoed the sentiment, noting Indiana is the most-bet team for the title by wagers and handle at the sportsbook. Bookmakers across the marketplace also say there is some liability on the very popular Paige Bueckers-led Dallas Wings, but they are less worried about that given that Dallas is the longest team on the board at 80-1, per DraftKings lines.

The Fever are +155 underdogs to win their series against the Aces at -185, while the Wings are an even longer +330 to the Valkyries' -425 for the series.

The liability on the longer teams means that sportsbooks are in decent shape at the top: "The Lynx and Aces, the betting favorites, are good outcomes for the sportsbook," Magee said over email.

Sportsbooks also have released odds for Finals MVP, with Minnesota's Collier and Miles leading the way at +280 and +320, respectively, per DraftKings lines. A'ja Wilson (+600), Gabby Williams (12-1) and Clark (15-1) round out the top five.