FIFA World Cup draw - Best and worst-case scenarios for Africa's qualifiers

Africa's nine FIFA World Cup qualifiers - as well as tournament hopefuls DR Congo - will learn the identities of their group-stage opponents during Friday's draw at the Kennedy Center in Washington.

These feel like times of great opportunity for African sides, with the expanded tournament and greater representation changing the tournament dynamic and optimism for the continent's teams ahead of the draw.

We analyse the best and worst-case scenarios for Africa's 9.5 contenders ahead of the draw, with reasons to believe that the continent will -- for the first time ever -- have more than two representatives in the knockouts.

How The Pots Work

The 48 teams have been placed into four pots of 12 teams, based on the FIFA World Rankings, apart from the three host nations -- the United States, Canada and Mexico -- who have been seeded.

The six teams to qualify via the playoff route aren't yet known, with 22 teams across the world still in competition for these outstanding tickets. One of these -- DR Congo -- will be represented by the ball 'FIFA Playoff 1' in Friday's draw, and have been placed in Pot Four.

As well as the three hosts, Pot One contains teams ranked between first and ninth in the world, none of whom are African, although both Morocco and Senegal are among the Pot Two teams.

Pot Three contains five African sides -- Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire and South Africa -- while Ghana and first-time qualifiers Cape Verde are in Pot Four alongside the DRC (should they qualify).

No sides from the same confederation can be drawn together in the group stage -- with the exception of UEFA -- meaning that the prospect of an all-African clash in the opening round is off the table.

However, there's reason for optimism that the 2026 edition could be the first ever World Cup that sees a first-ever all-African fixture in the knockouts.

New format, new opportunities

Since the inauguration of the World Cup, Africa have had a total of 49 World Cup participants, but only 11 of those teams have avoided first-round elimination; meaning that just under 78 percent of all African qualifiers have fallen at the first hurdle.

It's not a particularly auspicious statistic, and while Morocco broke new ground at the 2022 edition in Qatar by becoming the continent's first ever semi-finalists, three of the five qualifiers -- the other exception being Senegal -- didn't escape the group.

Indeed, 2022 was only the second edition of the competition - after 2014 - in which more than one African team progressed out of the group, with none of the continent's five qualifiers advancing from the opening round at the 2018 tournament in Russia.

However, never have African teams been among the seeded teams pre-draw, and never in recent tournaments when Pots have been organised based on FIFA Rankings rather than confederations, have African teams been in Pot Two either.

This year, therefore, more teams and more groups represents new ground for the continent, with both Morocco and Senegal included in Pot Two. On paper, it means that this pair are expected to progress to the knockouts, and will only have to best one team ahead of them in the current FIFA rankings in order to progress.

They may even be favourites to win their group, given that Morocco have a higher position in the FIFA rankings than any of the three hosts, while Senegal (ranked 19th in the world) are ranked higher than Canada (27th).

Regardless of the seeds they end up facing, each would be expected to advance to the knockouts ahead of the teams they could face from Pots Three or Four.

It's rare indeed that African teams -- based on the accepted position in the FIFA hierarchy -- are expected to progress to the knockouts, let alone head into a World Cup as the top ranked team in a group.

It's a massive difference, and it would represent an underachievement this year if Africa cannot at least provide two qualifiers for the Round of 32.

The diluted field, the greater opportunity given by the tournament expansion, and the recent memory of Morocco's run to the semifinal has rightly fuelled optimism in Africa that the continent's teams can break new ground at the World Cup and have, for the first time ever, three representatives in the enlarged knockout stages.

Best-case scenarios for Africa's teams

For all the teams in Pot Two, being pitted against one of the lower ranked hosts -- ideally Canada -- would represent a much better outcome than facing one of the traditional World Cup heavyweights.

Senegal know this only too well, having been drawn against hosts Qatar at the last tournament, promptly defeating the debutants 3-1 in Doha to progress alongside the Netherlands.

Qatar, then ranked 51st in the world, were a more favourable prospect than any of next year's hosts, and lost all three of their matches, but Senegal and Morocco will fancy their chances against Canada, who could be undone by Africa's Pot Three teams as well, regardless of home advantage.

Either Mexico or the United States would also appear more favourable options than one of the European giants or South American duo Brazil and Argentina; Ghana in particular, would surely relish the prospect of a meeting with the US after defeating them in 2006 and 2010, before the States had the last laugh in 2014.

However, Africa's qualifiers will know that teams lower down the draw - rather than the group seeds - will be more likely to decide their World Cup fate.

Those sides in Pot Three and Four will be eyeing Iran, Ecuador, Australia and even South Korea as beatable opponents from Pot Two, with the Koreans winning just one of their four previous matches against African foe at the tournament.

Australia, ranked 26th in the world, would hold little fear for an Egypt or an Algeria.

From Pot Three, both Senegal and Morocco, as well as the Pot Four trio would love a meeting with any of the Asian trio -- Uzbekistan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia -- while Panama, ranked 30th in the world, appear to be flattered by their prominent position in the FIFA standings despite their impressive possession football under Thomas Christiansen.

From Pot Four, Suriname appear the most vulnerable of the potential playoff sides who could be drawn with an African nation, with Curacao, Haiti and New Zealand the preferred options among the confirmed qualifiers.

Bear in mind that each group must have at least one European nation.

Best-case scenario for Morocco, Senegal: Canada (27), Saudi Arabia (60), Kosovo (80)

Best-case scenario for Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire, South Africa: Canada (27), Austria (24), New Zealand (86)

Best-case scenario for Cape Verde, Ghana, DR Congo: Canada (27), Austria (24), Saudi Arabia (60)

Worst-case scenario for Africa's teams

From Pot One, favourites Spain, reigning champions Argentina, as well as France and England are the teams to be avoided.

Brazil, while boasting some talented individuals, aren't the force they once were, while African teams tend to relish the spectacle and magic of playing the Selecao, with Cameroon's victory over the South Americans in 2022 celebrated across the continent.

Croatia, who would have been among the seeds in previous tournaments, would be the team to avoid from Pot Two, with South American duo Uruguay and Colombia also unlikely to be favourable opponents for those teams in Pots Three and Four.

For Morocco and Senegal, looking down to Pot Three, Erling Haaland's Norway would be a team to avoid, while Scotland too -- fancying their own chances of a first knockout appearance -- would represent a considerable test.

The Tartan Army might also have revenge in mind if they were pitted against the Atlas Lions, who defeated them 3-0 in Saint-Etienne during the 1998 tournament.

It's in Pot Four where the real dangers could lie, with Italy and Denmark, both contenders to advance via the UEFA playoffs, unlikely to just be making up the numbers.

There's a scenario that the five African teams in Pot Three could find themselves in a group along with three former winners in one of the Pot One heavyweights, Uruguay and Italy.

Worst-case scenario for Morocco, Senegal: Spain (1), Paraguay (29), Italy (12)

Worst-case scenario for Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire, South Africa: Spain (1), Uruguay (16), Italy (12)

Worst-case scenario for Cape Verde, Ghana, DR Congo: Spain (1), Uruguay (16), Norway (29)