Eric Chelle's Victor Osimhen gamble failed, but Nigeria have rebuilding depth

Eric Sekou Chelle's first brief as Nigeria coach was to rescue Nigeria's flailing FIFA World Cup hopes while looking ahead to refreshing the team.

With those objectives in mind, the coach spent much of his first 20 months as Nigeria coach trying to balance the need for immediate results with the longer-term task of expanding the Super Eagles player pool.

The World Cup chase was ultimately unsuccessful, and is now in the rear view, leaving Chelle to focus on accelerating the process of that squad refresh while planning for qualification to the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations.

It is in furtherance of that goal that the coach named largely separate squads for Nigeria's opening AFCON qualifiers against Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau, and the October 6 friendly against Russia, retaining most of his established players for the competitive matches while opening the Russia squad to a large group of newcomers.

The Super Eagles host Madagascar in Uyo on Friday, with a bit of uncomfortable history riding behind the game. Their last meeting with Madagascar ended in a shock 2-0 defeat at the 2019 Africa Cup of Nations in Egypt, when Gernot Rohr's team surrendered top spot in its group to the tournament debutants.

Nigeria had already qualified for the knockout stage then, but the loss was no less palatable. There is considerably less room to absorb a poor result this time, with only one qualifying spot available, the Super Eagles cannot afford a slow start before travelling to Bissau to play Guinea-Bissau four days later.

Chelle must find another route to goal

Chelle knew he was taking a chance when he named Victor Osimhen in the squad, and it is hard to fault the coach for the decision. Unfortunately, the forward failed to recover from his injury on time and has been replaced by Taiwo Awoniyi.

Even if he had recovered, it is doubtful if he would have been at fault tilt for the games. Still, the gamble was understandable considering what Osimhen has meant to Nigeria's results.

Since his senior debut in 2017, Nigeria have won 29 of the 51 official internationals in which Osimhen has played, a 56.9% win rate, compared with 40.3% in games without him over the same period.

His impact becomes even more pronounced in the games that he scores. Osimhen's 35 Nigeria goals have come in 23 matches. Nigeria have lost none of those, winning 17 and drawing six. Only one of those has been a friendly, and it ended in a draw. Meaning in competitive internationals in which he has scored, the Super Eagles are 17-5-0.

That influence was particularly evident during the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign. Nigeria won 5 drew 2 and lost none of the seven qualifiers and playoff matches Osimhen played and failed to win any of the five he missed, drawing 4 and losing one. Osimhen scored eight of Nigeria's 15 goals in those seven appearances, that is over 53% of Nigeria's goals in that series.

It is proof of just how important Osimhen is to Nigeria, but now, Chelle must begin another qualifying campaign without him.

Awoniyi has been called in as his replacement, but the Coventry forward does not have Osimhen's production. He has only two goals for Nigeria with the last coming in 2022.

In Osimhen's absence, Akor Adams and Tolu Arokodare have legitimate claims to the central position. Arokodare offers size and a physical reference point through the middle and has already been involved under Chelle, while Adams provides another conventional center-forward option and the ability to occupy central defenders.

Then there is George Ilenikhena. At 20, the youngster represents the longer-term option and gets an immediate opportunity to show Chelle whether his club form can translate to international football.

None brings Osimhen's combination of international scoring history, movement and energy, which makes the Madagascar game an immediate test of Chelle's alternatives, and possibly life outside the record-chasing striker.

A wide scouting net

If the qualifying squad represents Chelle's present, the Russia list offers a glimpse of what he is considering for Nigeria's future.

Isaac James, George Ilenikhena and Moses Usor are the first-time invitees in the qualifying squad, while Arthur Okonkwo and Chibuike Nwaiwu retain their places after making an impression during the Unity Cup.

But for the Russia squad, the coach has gone much further. Goalkeeper Samuel James and defender Victory Akpe are among those brought into the senior environment, along with midfielders Chibuzo Nwoko, Stephen Michael, Igor Wilfred, Ridwan Abdulrasaq, Suleiman Mubarak and Aderemi Adeoye. Peter Edokpolor, Abubakar Umar and Abdullahi Umar add another group of first-time senior campers in attack.

To be clear, it is too early to call that a wholesale rebuild as Chelle's competitive squad still contains Wilfred Ndidi, Alex Iwobi, Moses Simon, Semi Ajayi, Calvin Bassey, Ademola Lookman and Samuel Chukwueze but the direction appears to be emerging.

Rather than waiting for established players to decline before searching for replacements, Chelle is using the Russia game to examine alternatives while retaining enough senior players to provide structure around them.

And it makes sense for a team whose established core is not just moving through different stages of its international cycle, but hurtling towards the wrong side of 30.

Captain Wilfed Ndidi is 29, Alex Iwobi is 30, Moses Simon 31 and Semi Ajayi 32. Make no mistake, age in and of itself does not put their positions under immediate threat, particularly when all remain important to Chelle, but the number of younger players being brought into camp ramps up the competition for spots.

The midfield is especially interesting. Nigeria's qualifying squad contains only four recognized midfielders: Ndidi, Iwobi, Raphael Onyedika and Frank Onyeka. Chelle then selected six newcomers in that department for Russia in what looks like an attempt to find greater depth in an area where the Super Eagles have relied heavily on the same small group for a while now.

Even though the players most vulnerable are not necessarily the oldest, midfield has been a weak department for the Eagles in recent years and the new invitees will find they have the rare opportunity to force their way past established internationals if they can prove themselves.

Iheanacho rewarded for good form

Kelechi Iheanacho has done almost everything possible at club level to attract Chelle's attention. Nine goals in seven games for Bursaspor earned him his first Nigeria invitation since the 2025 Unity Cup, when he last appeared for the Super Eagles against Jamaica on May 31, 2025.

But there is a qualification to those numbers, and one which might explain why he is in the friendly squad rather than the competitive one. Bursaspor play in Turkey's second tier, and Chelle has recalled Iheanacho for the Russia friendly rather than immediately returning him to the squad for competitive matches, not even upgrading him when Osimhen dropped off.

Chelle is acknowledging Iheanacho's form, but without assuming that goals at that lower level automatically translate into a place ahead of forwards playing regularly at a more elite level.

Russia gives Iheanacho an opportunity to answer that question. Incidentally, the forward's case has never rested solely on playing as a conventional No. 9. At his best for Nigeria he has operated behind or alongside a striker, one who can receive between midfield and attack and has the technical quality to combine with runners around him.

It is that versatility that could help him, and it also means his competition is broader than Awoniyi, Adams and Arokodare. A return to the main squad could put pressure on any fringe attacking player if Chelle decides he needs another forward capable of linking midfield to the front line.

What the coach needs to establish is whether the current scoring run represents a player capable of contributing again at international level or one benefiting from playing below the level occupied by many of Nigeria's other attacking options.

A goal or two against Russia would help. So would the less obvious details: his movement, speed of combination, pressing and ability to influence the game against stronger opposition.

Nwabali reignites competition for no.1

For the first time in a while, Nigeria have three goalkeepers with plausible claims to start.

In the past, and prior to his hiatus, Stanley Nwabali would ordinarily have been the undisputed starter. But his extended absence from club football has opened the door for others. Maduka Okoye has taken full advantage to step back into the international picture, while Arthur Okonkwo used the Unity Cup to make his own case, keeping two clean sheets in both matches that he played in.

Those performances gave Chelle first-hand evidence of what Okonkwo could offer and helped him retain his place in the squad for the AFCON qualifiers.

Now Nwabali is back. After returning to Chippa United, he was named man of the match in his first competitive appearance in eight months, keeping a clean sheet against Golden Arrows.

His return changes the equation and leaves Chelle with a serious selection headache with having to pick from three goalkeepers who have already made strong cases for the position.

Okoye has the advantage of playing at the highest club level of the three, with Udinese in Serie A, and has been used by Chelle during Nwabali's absence. And that is where the real competition is, as Okonkwo is the least experienced internationally of the trio, despite his two starts, two victories and two clean sheets when given his opportunity.

Chelle has to now answer the question of whether to restore Nwabali immediately now that he is playing regularly again, or retain Okoye after using him as first choice during Nwabali's absence. Or has Okonkwo done enough to turn what previously looked like a two-man contest into a three-way fight?

Whoever starts against Madagascar will have an opportunity to establish an early advantage, particularly with another competitive match four days later.

Aina, Fredrick returns strengthen defence

Benjamin Fredrick's return is particularly significant because of how quickly he had established himself before injury. After breaking out during the 2025 Unity Cup, the 21-year-old played all 120 minutes in each of Nigeria's World Cup playoff matches against Gabon and DR Congo in November 2025, before suffering a knee injury while training with FCV Dender.

That injury kept him out for 287 days, ruling him out of Nigeria's AFCON campaign in Morocco. He finally returned at the end of August, playing 45 minutes for Brentford's under-21 team, and Chelle has included him in both the qualifying squad and the Russia group.

Aina's return addresses a different need. His ability to play on either side gives Chelle flexibility without requiring a change in personnel if Nigeria switch shape during a game. With Bright Osayi-Samuel also available, Chelle has established options at right back, while Bruno Onyemaechi provides another route on the left.

In central defence, Calvin Bassey and Semi Ajayi are joined by Fredrick, Emmanuel Fernandez, Chibuike Nwaiwu and Isaac James. That is a lot of defensive depth, and one that creates another layer of competition.

Fredrick had established himself as a first-choice defender before his injury, capable of playing at either right back or centre back. Nwaiwu impressed enough at the Unity Cup to stay in the competitive squad, while James has now been brought into the senior team for the first time.

With Calvin Bassey the undisputed leader of the defence, the battle for the second centreback slot should be heated, and Chelle can only be thankful for the options he has.