Connelly checks in on the SEC's launch party and Big Ten's question marks in Week 4

The first three weeks of the college football season have been fun in their own right, with mega-surprises -- Oklahoma State over Oregon! UMass over Rutgers! -- and lots of teams looking great one week and iffy the next.

Those three weeks gave us only five ranked-vs.-ranked matchups, however. Week 4 gives us six.

Top-ranked Texas not only leaves Austin for the first time this season but has to face a top-15 Tennessee. No. 4 Ole Miss, fresh off of its most cathartic win in ages, visits a torrid Florida in The Swamp. Preseason No. 2 Oregon, its margin-for-error diminished after an upset loss, faces a vital visit to No. 12 USC. Early-season darling Kamario Taylor and Mississippi State welcome their first ranked opponent of the season (Missouri). No. 18 Michigan hosts what has to date been a better version of Michigan (Iowa). And in the Group of 6 race, Boise State visits Western Michigan -- incredible timing, considering their Week 1 exploits -- and Tulsa gets a shot at a second power-conference win.

We could tell in the preseason that Week 4 was going to be big, but it looks even bigger than we thought. The season's shifting into gear! Here's everything you need to follow.

Note: All times are Eastern.

SEC's launch party

In six scattered league games thus far, the SEC has already given us an instant classic (Ole Miss over LSU), a stunner (Kentucky thumping Texas A&M) and, in typical SEC fashion, a trio of one-score finishes.

This week, however, the SEC gets going in earnest with seven conference games -- four ranked-vs.-ranked affairs (Texas-Tennessee, A&M-LSU, Ole Miss-Florida and, surprisingly, Mizzou-Mississippi State), another that would've been one last week (Oklahoma-Georgia), a game that has been reliably wild of late (South Carolina-Alabama) and a game overloaded with chaos energy (Vanderbilt-Auburn).

Let's lean into it.

No. 1 Texas at No. 14 Tennessee (noon, ABC)

Arch Manning and Texas were the sport's main characters two weeks ago with their comeback win over Ohio State. Now Tennessee gets its shot at main character status. The Volunteers have blazed through three mediocre-at-best opponents, and despite starting freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon they rank eighth in points per drive and have been nearly perfect in the red zone. Jim Knowles' defense gets burned here and there but ranks a healthy 15th in points allowed per drive.

If preseason projections weren't part of the SP+ ratings -- a terrible idea if you want to create accurate projections, but a good way of looking at early form -- Tennessee would rank fifth nationally and would be projected eight-point favorites over the Longhorns, who adapt and persevere and play pretty efficient ball but allow more big plays than they create.

The key here could be whether Texas can force Brandon out of automation mode.

The trait radar above paints a clear picture: Brandon avoids pressure by throwing quickly and leaves the pocket if things don't look right. Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be prepared for Tennessee's automations and could force mistakes. How well Brandon avoids them -- and how well Tennessee's run game keeps him out of obvious-pass situations -- will tell the tale. Running backs DeSean Bishop and Daune Morris have been outstanding, but Texas' defensive front is the best they've faced.

End Mariyon Dye and the Vols will harass and hurry Manning, but the Texas run game, which has been relatively ordinary (Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown: 4.5 yards per carry), will have a chance to break some big plays -- Tennessee ranks 127th in yards allowed per rush and 132nd in yards after contact. Smothers is listed as questionable, but Brown is high-caliber, too.

Current line: Texas -4 | SP+ projection: Texas by 1.4 | FPI projection: Texas by 7.2

No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida (3:30 p.m., ABC)

"If anybody in this building is not working their ass off to know that they're going to play a really good football team that's really well coached, there's more wrong with them than I think there is." That's what Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding said on Pat McAfee's show this week, addressing the Rebels' ultimate trap game situation: After last week's huge win over Lane Kiffin's LSU, they visit Jon Sumrall's increasingly confident Florida team.

Florida ranks first nationally in points per drive and rained down 44 points, 495 yards and nine gains of 20-plus last week against an otherwise solid Auburn defense. The secret to coordinator Buster Faulkner's early success? Running back Jadan Baugh's general awesomeness -- he's on pace to threaten 2,000 yards -- and Aaron Philo's accuracy. He's completing 73% of his passes, and he has one of the tightest pass placement charts you'll see.

Receivers aren't straining much to catch Philo's passes, and Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III (combined: 18.1 yards per catch) are taking them a long way. Ole Miss ranks 95th in points allowed per drive, and while that average includes games against Louisville and LSU, Florida's attack could be more explosive than both of those. Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels' offense might have to score lots of points.

They could do just that. Brad White's Florida defense has pulled a decent bend-don't-break routine, but it's hard to get Chambliss off the field unless you're forcing the issue. The Gators rank just 137th in stuff rate and 82nd in pressure rate. Even with running back Kewan Lacy listed as questionable, a comfortable Chambliss wins most track meets.

Current line: Gators -3.5 | SP+ projection: Gators by 4.7 | FPI projection: Gators by 1.1

No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 10 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC)

This would have been No. 7 vs. No. 9 last week, but LSU fell a little after losing to Ole Miss, and A&M fell a lot after a humbling, 10-point home loss to Kentucky. The Aggies' all-or-nothing defense fell out of balance, giving up six gains of 22 or more yards (and two over 40), while A&M's Marcel Reed averaged 9.1 yards per completion and Rueben Owens II averaged 4.1 yards per carry.

Defense was certainly an issue on Saturday, but it's jarring just how much the A&M passing game has fallen off.

The loss of KC Concepcion, with the risk-free explosiveness he provided, was always going to hurt, but I didn't expect it to hurt this much. It's a pretty bad time for the Aggies to face a defense that has been flawless against any offense not quarterbacked by Trinidad Chambliss. LSU is aggressive and dominant against the run, and Reed will likely be facing lots of second- or third-and-longs.

The LSU offense isn't exactly a world-beater either, however, and the Tigers haven't created loads of chunk plays. If you can't punish the Aggies deep, they can force three-and-outs and buy their offense time. But eventually Reed will have to make a big play. Maybe he's been hoarding them for this game?

Current line: LSU -8.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 4.4 | FPI projection: LSU by 4.6

No. 19 Missouri at No. 24 Mississippi State (7:45 p.m., SECN)

SP+ is slow to trust surprising early teams and has therefore only bumped Mississippi State up to 30th despite the Bulldogs' torrid start. That's why this game is projected as a toss-up. But MSU has overachieved against projections by 19.0 points per game, most of any power-conference team. The weight of preseason projections drops significantly after your fourth game, so MSU is set to rise pretty quickly soon. Can Mizzou do anything to stop either that or Kamario Taylor?

Mizzou is coming off of a major trap-game performance against Troy, giving up two touchdowns on poor safety angles and stalling out offensively with penalties and poor timing in the passing game. Austin Simmons fell from eighth to 31st in Total QBR in a single week, and the Tigers must prove these glitches came simply because they were looking ahead to MSU.

Taylor and MSU nearly fell off course last week against South Carolina, spotting their hosts a 16-0 lead over the first 20 minutes. But their bend-don't-break defense held the Gamecocks to field goals, and Taylor eventually completed six passes of 20-plus yards and got a 43-yard run from Fluff Bothwell. They still make plenty of mistakes but overcome them with big plays. Will that continue?

Current line: MSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 0.5 | FPI projection: MSU by 6.2

Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

This was supposed to be one of the biggest games of the week, but while Georgia has held up its end of the bargain, outscoring three weak opponents by a combined 178-40, OU has scored just 24 points in the past two games, with John Mateer throwing three picks and taking five sacks. The run game hasn't improved, and while offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle is under serious fire, Brent Venables hasn't done nearly enough to fix a long-broken offensive line either. (Injuries haven't helped: Left tackle Michael Fasusi, their best O-lineman, will miss his third straight game.)

Barring a miraculous turnaround from Mateer, it's hard to imagine OU topping even 14 points in Athens, but the Sooners' defense remains elite and might teach us a bit about a great-looking Georgia offense. Nate Frazier is averaging 8.4 yards per carry, and Gunner Stockton is averaging 11.9 yards per dropback. Can Frazier still carve out some nice spaces between the tackles? Can big-play receivers Craig Dandridge Jr. and Sacovie White-Helton (combined: 15 catches for 297 yards and two TDs) beat good defensive backs, too?

Current line: UGA -14 | SP+ projection: UGA by 13.1 | FPI projection: UGA by 13.8

South Carolina at No. 8 Alabama (7 p.m., ESPN)

The past two South Carolina-Alabama games have been remarkably similar.

Two years ago, Bama went up 14-0, gave up a 19-0 run and needed two scores and a two-point stop to survive. Last year, the Tide led 14-6, gave up a 16-0 run and needed two Germie Bernard TDs and a costly LaNorris Sellers fumble to win. Keelon Russell and the Tide have started the last couple of games slowly and would welcome a 14-0 start, but they're landing knockout punches well before the final minutes regardless.

South Carolina indeed dominated Mississippi State early last week but kept settling for field goals and lost after MSU's offense shifted into gear. The Gamecocks' run game has improved but probably won't dent a dominant Bama run front, so Sellers will likely have to make some big plays. He's almost overcorrected in that department: He previously took too many sacks in hunting for game breakers, and he's settling for shorter throws now, only his receivers are dropping passes and creating fewer chunk plays.

Current line: Bama -12.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 9.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 13.2

Vanderbilt at Auburn (4:15 p.m., SECN)

Vanderbilt has underachieved against projections in all three games and needed a miracle to beat NC State last week. The Commodores aren't giving freshman quarterback Jared Curtis much run support, and the defense has been merely decent. But they're surviving and advancing -- they're more tough than good right now.

Auburn, meanwhile, is 2-1 and has played a 17-16 game and a 44-39 game; Alex Golesh's Tigers are operating with mach-speed tempo and have been good at everything once. With only three games left against teams outside the SP+ top 30, they need this one.

Current line: Auburn -9.5 | SP+ projection: Auburn -4.3 | FPI projection: Auburn by 9.3

A search for answers in the Big Ten

Has Oregon fixed whatever was wrong in the first couple of weeks of the season? Is there any chance we can trust the Michigan offense or USC defense? Two games will give us some pretty big answers to pretty big questions in the Big Ten.

No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC)

Two years ago, Oregon rolled to 13-0 and won the Big Ten despite an underwhelming start, first struggling to put away Jason Eck's Idaho, then needing a pair of return touchdowns to beat Boise State. In Week 3, the Ducks shifted into gear and never looked back.

This season has begun in similar fashion, only they actually tripped up this time when their defense got flambéed by Oklahoma State. But they obliterated Portland State last week, so now maybe everything's fine? USC's the perfect opponent for helping us find out -- the Trojans are capable of exploiting any remaining flaw in the Oregon defense.

Scoring won't be a problem for Oregon. Even with Dante Moore posting iffy numbers by his standards, the Ducks have topped 30 points in every game, and Gary Patterson's USC defense just put in a dreadful shift at Rutgers, allowing 35 points, recording only two tackles for loss and giving up a monstrous 61% rushing success rate. (The national average in rushing success rate: 45%. They made Rutgers' run game look like a top-five attack.)

Despite some skill corps injuries, there is a chance Oregon might bully USC's defense as many have in recent years. But the Trojans still have Jayden Maiava and exciting receivers, even with star freshman Trent Mosley likely out; Oregon's pass defense ranks just 71st in yards per dropback and has allowed 20.4% of completions to gain 20-plus yards (111th). I trust the Ducks more, even on the road (and even having watched the OSU game), but this one has track meet potential, and Riley has won plenty of those.

Current line: Ducks -3 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 0.3 | FPI projection: Ducks by 1.4

No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Say it with me: Playoff Iowa! The Hawkeyes were supremely underrated last season, finishing 12th in SP+ but losing four games by a total of 15 points. A new defense is performing brilliantly, and they play only one team ranked higher than them in SP+ the rest of the way (Ohio State next week). If they win in Ann Arbor, the schedule's set up for a run. And they've been better than Michigan thus far.

Iowa leads the nation in points allowed per possession (0.33) and yards allowed per play (3.2). New starters like linebacker (and small-school Iowa product) Cam Buffington have been spectacular. Michigan easily has the best offense the Hawkeyes have faced, but it's obviously not amazing. Bryce Underwood and the Wolverines found a lovely rhythm in a 35-point second half against UTEP last week, but that followed a hideous start. Even after that outburst, they're still 86th in points per drive. They'll need to establish a solid run game and stay on schedule because Iowa's pass defense appears as good as ever.

Michigan's defense is also excellent, of course. The Wolverines rank fifth in both passing success rate and sack rate, and a nibbling Iowa passing game probably won't do much. But a quartet of Iowa running backs led by Kamari Moulton has combined for 228.3 yards per game and 9.0 yards per carry, and Michigan's defense has been good but not elite against the run.

Current line: Michigan -5.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 0.3 | FPI projection: Michigan by 5.3

The Group of 6 games of the week

The order varies, but SP+ and FPI agree that the top contenders for the Group of 6's automatic CFP bid are North Dakota State, Boise State, James Madison, South Florida, New Mexico, Tulsa, Memphis and Western Michigan. Two of them meet in Kalamazoo, while Tulsa has a chance at another statement win.

Boise State at Western Michigan (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)

Boise State went toe-to-toe with one of the nation's most talented teams (Oregon), then absorbed early uppercuts against G6 contender Memphis before finishing with a 35-3 knockout. Last week, against an extremely talented FCS team (South Dakota), the Broncos battled early glitches but pulled away.

Now comes another test two time zones away. WMU is 2-1 and came within a millisecond of upsetting Michigan. The Broncos are projected MAC favorites, and while they struggled a bit against Rice's option, that doesn't really apply against a more customary BSU attack.

Big plays have been an issue for Maddux Madsen and BSU thus far -- the Broncos have gained 20-plus yards on only 5.5% of snaps (105th), while opponents are at 10.9% (137th). Explosiveness hasn't been a strength for the WMU offense, and BSU will likely win an efficiency contest. But WMU's defense forces mistakes, and they'll have a chance in this Bronco Bowl.

Current line: BSU -7 | SP+ projection: BSU by 7.1 | FPI projection: BSU by 4.9

Tulsa at Arkansas (8 p.m., SECN+)

Morale in Fayetteville is ridiculously low. After an unimpressive opener against North Alabama, Arkansas lost to Georgia and Utah by a combined 88-27, and almost all of their points came in garbage time. The Razorbacks are double-digit underdogs in every remaining game after this one, and there's no guarantee they beat Tulsa either.

Tulsa quarterback Baylor Hayes is listed as doubtful, but backup Dexter Williams II is experienced, and if Tulsa wins, it'll be because of a defense that ranks eighth in points allowed per drive and completely shut down Oklahoma State in Week 1. Edge rusher Thomas Davis has recorded at least one sack in every game, and Arkansas allows tons of sacks. If receiver Chris Marshall doesn't come up big, I'm not sure the Hogs score enough.

Current line: Hogs -7 | SP+ projection: Hogs by 3.5 | FPI projection: Hogs by 1.4

Week 4 chaos superfecta

We're once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We got one last week (West Virginia over Virginia), so we're 2-for-3 on the season. Let's make that 3-for-4!

SP+ says there's only a 31% chance that Penn State (85% win probability vs. Wisconsin), Arizona (79% vs. Washington State), Louisville (78% vs. Wake Forest) and Arkansas (59% vs. Tulsa) all win. Let's either take down a ranked team or give Tulsa another big win!

Week 4 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Northwestern at No. 5 Indiana (8 p.m., Fox). Northwestern has topped its SP+ projections by 18.6 points per game -- change this week's projections by 18.6 points, and we have ourselves a game! Indiana sleepwalked for a while against Western Kentucky last week, but I'm assuming we get a sharp version of Josh Hoover, Charlie Becker & Co. in the Hoosiers' first real game. The line's moved toward Northwestern, though.

Current line: Hoosiers -21 | SP+ projection: Hoosiers by 20.6 | FPI projection: Indiana by 18.3

Clemson at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Clemson's battled storm delays in three consecutive games, but the Tigers' experience paid off against North Carolina: They trailed by two, and UNC had a goal-to-go situation, but after a 2.5-hour storm, Clemson forced a field goal, then scored two TDs to win. The forecast in Berkeley this week: 60s and sunny. They'll have to beat Cal without interruptions. Lucky for them, quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele hasn't really gotten going yet.

Current line: Clemson -1.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 3.8 | FPI projection: Clemson by 3.6

Early Saturday

Illinois at No. 7 Ohio State (noon, Fox). Quarterback Katin Houser and Illinois rank seventh nationally in success rate. The Illini defense has struggled, however: They're 103rd in points allowed per possession and 88th in passing success rate allowed. That feels fatal against Jeremiah Smith and the Ohio State offense. Can the visitors at least score enough to make this fun for a while?

Current line: Buckeyes -26.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 21.1 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 25.6

Wake Forest at No. 16 Louisville (noon, ESPN). Extreme bend-don't-break defense and aggressive passing make Wake Forest a unique out, and Louisville needs to avoid a letdown after an important win over SMU. But the Cardinals rank 13th in success rate, and Wake ranks 129th in success rate allowed. The Demon Deacons' defense probably bends a little too much.

Current line: Louisville -13.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 12.2 | FPI projection: Louisville by 11.9

UCLA at Maryland (1:30 p.m., BTN). Maryland's run defense was strong against Virginia Tech, but the Terrapins allowed too much through the air. That makes them an interesting matchup against unbeaten (and cross-country-traveling) UCLA: The Bruins have a brutally efficient run game, but they're only 111th in passing success rate. Make this a QB-vs.-QB game, and Maryland's Malik Washington could outshine Nico Iamaleava.

Current line: UCLA -1.5 | SP+ projection: Maryland by 1.4 | FPI projection: Maryland by 2.5

No. 3 Notre Dame at Purdue (2 p.m., Peacock). Purdue was competitive against UCLA, and the Boilermakers' passing game, with Ryan Browne throwing to Asaad Waseem and Xavier Townsend, is solid. But the defense sure isn't offering much. Maybe the Irish run game can get going now? Even after Nolan James Jr.'s 121-yard performance last week, they're still just 131st nationally in yards per carry.

Current line: Irish -27.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 26.3 | FPI projection: Irish by 27.9

San Diego State at Toledo (noon, CBSSN). Another cross-country game. After losses to UCLA and James Madison, SDSU now takes on a Body Clocks Game at 9 a.m. Pacific. Toledo pulled off a miraculous comeback against Temple last week and is getting lots of big plays from receivers Adjatay Dabbs and Rico Bond, but SDSU's secondary is still among the best in the Group of 6.

Current line: Toledo -3 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 0.5 | FPI projection: Toledo by 5.7

Saturday afternoon

No. 15 Utah at Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Fox). Iowa State has overachieved significantly against projections for the last two weeks, and the Cyclones' defense ranks 14th in points per drive. Utah has the best offense they've faced, however, and ISU will still have to score against the defense ranked sixth in points per drive. Still, don't be surprised if this one is a pain in the butt for the Utes.

Current line: Utah -8.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 8.7 | FPI projection: Utah by 9.8

Wisconsin at No. 12 Penn State (5 p.m., Peacock). At 56th in SP+, Wisconsin is easily the best team Penn State has faced. The Nittany Lions overwhelmed three lesser opponents, but if they can run the ball on a solid Badgers front, pass well with leading receiver Koby Howard banged up and slow down a prolific Colton Joseph-to-Tyrell Henry pitch-and-catch combo, that will tell us a lot about their ceiling.

Current line: PSU -10 | SP+ projection: PSU by 16.5 | FPI projection: PSU by 16.7

TCU at UCF (3:30 p.m., FS1). Without quarterback Alonza Barnett III (hamstring), UCF overwhelmed Georgia State with 304 rushing yards last week. But the Knights will probably need more passing from Keyone Jenkins to score on a TCU defense that has allowed just 29 points in three games and ranks 12th in rushing success rate allowed. TCU's offense has rebounded somewhat since the Ireland dud against North Carolina, too.

Current line: TCU -3 | SP+ projection: TCU by 3.2 | FPI projection: UCF by 0.6

Nebraska at Michigan State (5 p.m., BTN). Nebraska hasn't played anyone incredible but has still exceeded projections every week. The Huskers are getting strong work from freshman running back Jamal Rule and receiver Jacory Barney Jr. MSU is slowing games down and playing physically, but Pat Fitzgerald's Spartans have gained 20-plus yards on only 3.5% of snaps (131st) and will have to manufacture many long drives to keep up.

Current line: Nebraska -5.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 9.7 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 7.8

No. 25 Houston at Georgia Southern (4 p.m., ESPNU). Willie Fritz led Georgia Southern to a great start in FBS. Now he takes Houston to Statesboro. Lovely. The Eagles have played reasonably efficient defense, but Houston ranks fourth nationally in success rate, and GSU's moribund passing game probably won't be able to punish a shaky Houston pass defense. Paulson Stadium should be hopping for a little while, though.

Current line: Houston -18.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 16.0 | FPI projection: Houston by 16.9

New Mexico at New Mexico State (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). After annoying the hell out of Oklahoma, Jason Eck's New Mexico now heads to Las Cruces hoping to avoid a letdown against running back James Jones and a fired up NMSU. Backs Scottre Humphrey and Kiefer Sibley and speedy QB Toa Fa'avae should give New Mexico the edge, but this one should be awfully fun if you like physicality. I hope they're still playing for a chili roaster.

Current line: Lobos -11.5 | SP+ projection: Lobos by 18.0 | FPI projection: Lobos by 15.1

Saturday evening

Oklahoma State at West Virginia (7 p.m., FS1). These teams have the Big 12's two most impressive nonconference wins -- OSU over Oregon, WVU over Virginia. OSU's Drew Mestemaker is fully locked in, and the Cowboys' defense has been better than I expected. But WVU's pass rush is excellent, and it seems WVU quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. is in the perfect offense for his skill set. This should be one of Saturday's most aesthetically pleasing games.

Current line: WVU -1.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 2.4 | FPI projection: WVU by 3.4

Kansas State at Cincinnati (7 p.m., ESPN2). Neither of these unbeaten teams has played a top-80 opponent yet, per SP+, but K-State has been better to date, and quarterback Avery Johnson is doing a solid Collin Klein impression: K-State's head coach was a rushing and third-downs machine for the Wildcats, and Johnson's offense is currently 14th in yards per carry (no sacks) and first in third-down conversions. Cincy's offense is efficient, too, but the Bearcats' iffy run defense might struggle.

Current line: K-State -6.5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 3.8 | FPI projection: K-State by 3.0

James Madison at Old Dominion (6 p.m., ESPN+). After a big win over San Diego State, James Madison returns to the East Coast to fend off a revenge attempt. JMU upended ODU's playoff hopes a year ago by pulling away for an explosive 63-27 win. The Monarchs are diminished this season, especially on offense -- problematic against a JMU defense allowing 9.7 points per game -- but an aggressive defense could still muck things up.

Current line: JMU -6 | SP+ projection: JMU by 10.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 9.1

Late Saturday

Georgia Tech at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Georgia Tech's offense ranks 123rd in stuff rate and 126th in sack rate allowed. The Yellow Jackets' offensive line play has been a nightmare, and it has limited opportunities for QB Alberto Mendoza and RB Justice Haynes. Stanford's defense, however, ranks 98th in stuff rate and 134th in sack rate. This is a get right game for one of these units; don't ask me which one. (Probably Tech.)

Current line: Tech -3.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.3 | FPI projection: Tech by 6.2

Minnesota at Washington (11 p.m., Fox). Injuries have rocked Washington's offense; quarterback Demond Williams Jr. is still making plays, but he's not getting much support, and UW ranks 75th in points per possession without having played a top-60 defense. Minnesota's defense ranks 34th. The Gophers got rocked by Mississippi State and might struggle against the Huskies' defense. But they could grind this down into a rock fight, and PJ Fleck has won plenty of those.

Current line: Huskies -10 | SP+ projection: Huskies by 9.4 | FPI projection: Huskies by 8.7

Smaller-school showcase

Let's once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

FCS: No. 12 South Dakota at No. 13 Youngstown State (2 p.m., ESPN+). YSU's demanding early schedule earns the Penguins another showcase game. After last week's loss to South Dakota State, they'll take on a relative toss-up against a South Dakota team that gave Boise State hell.

Both of these teams have the offense -- YSU's Beau Brungard remains an outstanding dual-threat, and the USD backfield of QB Austyn Modrzewski and RB Charles Pierre Jr. is among the FCS' best. Which defense will show out in Youngstown?

SP+ projection: YSU by 1.3.

NAIA: No. 3 College of Idaho at No. 2 Montana Tech (2 p.m., local streaming). This week's biggest small-school game, rankings-wise, is also one of the most reliably exciting NAIA games. Average winning margin in the 2020s: 5.4 points. Quarterback Caden Young and the visiting Yotes have been a hair better, but ends Trevor Miller and Cole Graham key a Tech defense allowing 7.8 PPG.

SP+ projection: College of Idaho by 4.3.

D-II: No. 2 Harding at Ouachita Baptist (8 p.m., local streaming). Harding has won 38 of its past 39 Great American Conference games; the Bisons' only loss in that span came against Ouachita Baptist in their last trip to Arkadelphia. The Tigers haven't been amazing this season, but we're watching this one to either (a) see if they can conjure some more upset magic or (b) watch a relentless Harding wrecking ball in action.

SP+ projection: Harding by 17.3.