Predicting the next five Super Bowl champions

ESPN will televise the Super Bowl for the first time in February 2027. We will count down to the big game with Super Bowl-centric stories every month.

Super Bowl winners are, by definition, improbable. It's not just the 1-out-of-32 math. It is mostly due to the fact that the NFL plays a best-of-one playoff series -- no best-of-five or best-of-seven series to save a good team that has a bad game or unlucky break. It's also the fact that injury attrition eliminates multiple playoff teams before the ball is ever snapped. It is so, so hard to win a Super Bowl.

It's even harder to predict who will win a Super Bowl -- let alone the next five. (Why does nobody ever write about how much tougher my job is than an NFL head coach's?) We're two weeks into the 2026 season, and I have no idea who will win the Super Bowl in February. But I gave my best mid-September bet. Then, I went to next year (which is still kind of reasonable). And then I predicted the year after that (which was totally wacky). And then I did two more just because.

To build this list, I tried not to be too scientific. A rigorous look at elite quarterbacks, elite coaches and a pedigree of winning would have given us ... the Chiefs, Rams and Seahawks in every Super Bowl down the way. I was reminded of Seth Walder's lovely FPI preseason simulation piece, in which he selects just one simulation from the set of thousands run during the preseason to determine team strength. It's a reminder that predicting an exact outcome -- not the likeliest outcome, but one exact outcome -- should carry with it some challenges to credulity. So (spoiler alert), if Ravens fans and Bills fans are upset that they are not included below, just know this: Browns fans and Dolphins fans also have the right to be upset.

Remember to take these predictions as seriously as possible. Aggregate them with the headline "ESPN NFL analyst predicts [insert team] to win a Super Bowl within five seasons!" A lot of people will click. And more importantly, absolutely nobody will angrily DM me on social media.

Jump to a season:
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030

2026 season: Seattle Seahawks

It's a little weird to pick a Super Bowl champion for the current season when we have only a two-game sample. It would be easier with no games (here are my preseason vibes) or something like eight games (OK, these guys are definitely good).

I usually never pick repeats -- it's so hard to get back to the dance after a long season the year before -- but it's difficult to argue any team has been better than Seattle through this short season. Quarterback Sam Darnold (hip) went down in the first quarter against the Patriots in Week 1, and Mike Macdonald's group is still 2-0.

What stands out about Macdonald's Seahawks -- and what makes them feel so repeatable -- is how the defense hasn't missed a beat despite offseason departures. We usually feel the brain drain (and long-season exhaustion) of a Super Bowl champion early in the ensuing season -- that is not so in Seattle. The entire defensive coaching staff remained and has easily accounted for the departures of safety Coby Bryant, cornerback Riq Woolen and edge rusher Boye Mafe.

The work of new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury with backup quarterback Drew Lock has been impressive; Lock was ripping throws over the middle with timing and accuracy. Getting good play out of a QB2 is not the same skill set as getting good play out of a QB1, but all of the signs I've seen from Seattle thus far are that Fleury can keep up Klint Kubiak's momentum. The improvements in the running game -- even before Zach Charbonnet returns from injured reserve -- are noticeable, too.

If the Seahawks repeat ... then are they a dynasty? Probably not. Dynasties are made over a decade of dominance, not consecutive championships. Darnold would become the ninth quarterback to win consecutive Super Bowls, and with only one year left on his deal, he would likely demand -- and get -- a market-rate contract at the level of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. What are the Seahawks going to do, not give it him?

What I think happens: Seattle loses the NFC West title to the Rams by tiebreaker rules ... only to beat the Rams in an NFC Championship rematch as the fifth seed. That game ends 22-21 on a successful Seahawks two-point conversion at the end of regulation (no fumble hijinks this time). Seattle goes on to face the Texans (yes, the currently 0-2 Texans) in one of the lowest-scoring Super Bowls of the 2000s -- not quite the 13-3 Patriots-Rams score from 2019 but close. The Seahawks win 16-10 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. Cornerback Devon Witherspoon wins MVP (as he should have last season) with a stuffed stat sheet: seven tackles, three TFLs, one sack and one interception.

2027 season: Cincinnati Bengals

It's actually quite rare to see a quarterback make a Super Bowl and then make his next one six years later. John Elway is perhaps the best example, though he made three close together (1986, 1987, 1989) and then another two after a long hiatus (1997,1998). Elway and Joe Burrow would be the only two to do it with the same franchise. Craig Morton did it back in the 1970s with two teams -- as a Cowboy in 1970 and a Bronco in 1977 -- and Kurt Warner did it with the Rams in 2002 and the Cardinals in 2009.

But I think Burrow can do it by sticking with the Bengals, who have endured injury-ruined years and defensive decay ever since reaching the Super Bowl in 2021. Their huge 2026 offseason bet on Dexter Lawrence II (and other defensive improvements aside) serves as proof of their desperation to get back before the current regime of coach Zac Taylor, de facto GM Duke Tobin and Burrow undergoes a major shake-up.

The Bengals have a great shot at representing the AFC in 2026 because of their stars at premium positions: quarterback (Burrow), wide receiver (Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins), cornerback (DJ Turner II) and offensive tackle (Amarius Mims). Their lack of a true star edge rusher is mitigated by the presence of Lawrence, who through two games has been exactly the force multiplier they hoped on the interior.

I am, however, concerned about the youth on the team in a 2026 playoff run. A lot of those key defensive players haven't taken serious playoff snaps. Demetrius Knight Jr., Barrett Carter, Dax Hill, Turner -- even Lawrence himself has only two games of postseason action. For as clutch as Burrow is, and how dangerous that offense is, it's easy to forget that the defense powered the Bengals' AFC playoff run in 2021 -- holding Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to three points in the second half of the AFC Championship Game, intercepting Ryan Tannehill with 20 seconds left in the divisional round and holding on fourth-and-goal against the Raiders in the wild-card round.

What I think happens: The Bengals will use a deep 2026 playoff run that falls just short to propel themselves over the hump in 2027. In free agency, the team retains both Turner and Hill (somehow, don't ask me) to keep the secondary in a strong spot. Cincinnati also swings a bold trade for offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil as the Commanders rebuild, banking that he has one last great year in him -- and he does. The Super Bowl victory comes a year later than they hoped, but the Bengals get revenge on the Rams -- in what ends up as Matthew Stafford's final season -- with a 31-30 last-second win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

2028 season: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projecting 2026 and 2027 at least has some sort of tether in our current reality, but 2028 is where things slide quickly into dreamland. Consider projecting the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl two years ago. Pete Carroll was still the head coach, Geno Smith was the quarterback, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the No. 3 receiver. The NFL can change so fast over a two-year window.

So who do I pick? The Browns? The Dolphins? Nah. I still need to see a general manager I trust at the helm -- someone who makes so many good picks, year over year, that I can be confident in the floor of the roster. As such, I'm taking Jason Licht and the Buccaneers.

I don't really love what I've seen from the Buccaneers in 2026. Baker Mayfield looks uncertain in his reads and out of sync with his receivers. He also isn't scrambling nearly as effectively as he once did, which could be a serious long-term concern considering all the injuries he collected in 2025.

But golly if I don't love a lot of the Buccaneers' young players. Here's a non-comprehensive list of guys who have flashed early: Emeka Egbuka, Graham Barton, Elijah Roberts, Benjamin Morrison, Tykee Smith, Josiah Trotter and Ted Hurst III. Licht, who has managed the Buccaneers' roster since 2014, knows how to draft, plain and simple.

Of course, Licht's lone Super Bowl appearance -- and title -- came thanks to signing Tom Brady in free agency. I don't think Mahomes is hitting the open market anytime soon, so Licht needs a different shot in the arm to get out of the middle class this time around. I've been disappointed by the coaching and game management of Todd Bowles for a while now, and I think his seat is hot enough that a new coach might take over the Buccaneers by the 2027 season.

Imagine if the Bucs nail the coaching hiring -- a total home run. Maybe current Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle is the sort of playcaller who can get a huge late-career leap out of Mayfield? Or Cowboys offensive coordinator Klayton Adams? What if Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores finally gets another chance at being a head coach?

There's enough exciting young talent on the Buccaneers' roster that I can reasonably argue that they're a coach away -- so long as Mayfield's play settles down from this rocky 2026 start.

What I think happens: The Buccaneers end up in a two-team race with the divisional rival Saints (a la the Rams and Seahawks of today's NFC) and eke out an NFC Championship win. Then, in Super Bowl LXIV, they steamroll the Bills in a 38-10 drubbing at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. A beleaguered Josh Allen -- exhausted from yet another year of coming up just short -- then publicly mulls early retirement in his postgame presser while western New York quakes.

2029 season: Las Vegas Raiders

It's tough to make a list of coaches who have called a better offense since the start of last season than Klint Kubiak. There are candidates -- the Rams' Sean McVay, 49ers' Kyle Shanahan, Bears' Ben Johnson and Jaguars' Liam Coen -- but Kubiak is in that tier. In fact, over the past three seasons -- including as coordinator of the 2024 Saints -- Kubiak has made the most of incomplete rosters and imperfect quarterbacks. When he does get his hands on an elite player, such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, he knows how to get the most out of his star talent. We have already seen a flicker of that with running back Ashton Jeanty in Las Vegas -- and just wait until tight end Brock Bowers returns from injury.

I'm buying all the stock in the Raiders' offense even before Fernando Mendoza steps up to the helm. It might take Mendoza a season or so to settle into NFL play -- remember, his college offense was very different from Kubiak's pro-style approach. More importantly, the Raiders need time to fill out their receiving corps. Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor and Jack Bech are handy players, but Super Bowl winners tend to have a clear top-15 receiver. The Raiders might not pick early enough to find that guy in the draft, which leaves them the trade market.

Who could it be? Maybe Justin Jefferson gets frustrated enough with the QB carousel in Minnesota that he forces his way out? Or Tetairoa McMillan loses patience with Bryce Young in Carolina. I'll bet on Denzel Boston, the Browns' rookie who looks like a real-deal playmaker early in the 2026 season. By 2029, he will have had consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and will be ready to get out of a still-listless Browns franchise. The Raiders will send two first-round picks to get Boston in the 2029 offseason, then sign him to a $55 million deal. It's considered a bargain. And most importantly, it will work. 

What I think happens: Maxx Crosby, by now 32 years old, turns back the clock with a vintage year as his indefatigable patience with the franchise is rewarded. Boston and Bowers become the first pair of teammates to go for 1,500 receiving yards apiece. The Raiders go 15-3 (we have an 18-game season by this point in this scenario), and Mendoza, who is in every commercial imaginable, wins league MVP in his fourth season.

The Raiders go on to win in overtime against the Packers, who are coached by current Raiders defensive coordinator Rob Leonard -- an emerging star of the Mike Macdonald coaching tree. The shared DNA between the staffs makes the game brutally close, but the Raiders take it 22-19 in overtime at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Boston wins MVP with a six-catch, 96-yard and two-touchdown game. I have to be physically removed from the press box for showing everyone the Boston takes I tweeted in 2026.

2030 season: Kansas City Chiefs

C'mon. You have to admit that this would be funny.

The Chiefs appeared in five of six Super Bowls -- and won three -- between 2019 and 2024. Then came the drought during which Mahomes and the Chiefs didn't appear in a single one from 2025 to 2029. Surely the dragon was slain. Surely the dynasty was finished.

Not so fast, my friend! Dynasties do not die so easily. Don't forget that from 2005 to 2013 -- that's nine seasons -- Tom Brady and the Patriots appeared in only two Super Bowls and lost them both. Then, they appeared in four of the next five and won three of them. Greatness is not so easily laid to rest.

By 2027, the lack of postseason success has installed an entirely new staff and front office in Kansas City. Ex-Bills head coach Sean McDermott, who coached under Andy Reid in Philadelphia many years ago, is hired as the new head man in Kansas City. He and Steve Spagnuolo, who is retained, get the Chiefs' defense to a cutting-edge level with league-leading production.

The offensive coaching staff is a carousel at first, and the Chiefs fall short in a couple of heartbreaking AFC Championship Games -- to the Bengals in 2027 and the Bills in 2028. Frustrations simmer, then boil over -- McDermott will never have what it takes.

Then comes the masterstroke of an offensive coordinator hire ahead of the 2030 season. The Chiefs bring in Case Keenum, who has transitioned out of playing and into a QB coach with Ben Johnson's Bears over the previous few seasons.

What I think happens: Given the headset for the first time, Keenum shines. A 35-year-old Mahomes hits a career renaissance as a pocket passer working with a late-career breakout in Marvin Harrison Jr. and star young wideout in Chris Henry Jr. (currently a freshman at Ohio State and the son of that Chris Henry). Travis Kelce considers an Aaron Donald-esque return from retirement but instead elects to stream and react to the game live on whatever virtual reality headsets have taken over our lives by this point. One billion people worldwide watch Kelce watch the Chiefs beat the Bears 41-24 in Super Bowl LXV.