Nigeria vs Madagascar - Super Eagles need strong start in AFCON 2027 race

Nigeria begin their 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign against Madagascar on Friday, with considerably less margin for error than they would normally expect at the start of qualification.

The Super Eagles host the Barea at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium in Uyo before travelling to Bissau to face Guinea-Bissau four days later. Tanzania, the fourth team in Group L, have already qualified as co-hosts with Kenya and Uganda, meaning only the highest-placed team other than Tanzania will advance from the group.

That means there is greater value on every point, particularly those available at home, and Nigeria can attest from their recent nightmarish experience, in failing to reach the FIFA World Cup earlier this year, what a slow start can do to a qualifying campaign.

There are other storylines around Friday's game. Stanley Nwabali is back and faces competition in goal. Victor Osimhen is missing through injury. Moses Simon is one appearance away from 100 caps.

And Madagascar are back in front of the Super Eagles for the first time since inflicting one of Nigeria's more embarrassing AFCON defeats seven years ago.

Time for payback?

Nigeria have waited more than seven years for another shot at Madagascar since that last meeting at the 2019 Africa Cup of Nations in Egypt, when an overconfident Nigeria sent out their second team against the Barea, only to be handed a 2-0 reality check in Alexandria.

Nigeria had already qualified for the knockout stage after beating Burundi and Guinea, but the defeat surrendered first place to Madagascar and sent the Super Eagles into a Round of 16 meeting with defending champions Cameroon.

Although Nigeria recovered to beat Cameroon 3-2 and eventually finished third, that game had consequences, as it turned out to be the final international appearance of captain John Mikel Obi.

Mikel started the game, but was substituted after 58 minutes after a less than stellar, error-strewn display. He did not play again at the tournament and announced his retirement from international football after the competition.

Friday is the first meeting between the countries since then.

Nigeria will obviously not be repeating the mistake of 2019. Barring Osimhen's absence, Chelle now has his most complete squad ever, with competition running all the way from back to front.

His first headache will be selection, who to pick for this starting XI, and the selection on Friday will be the clearest indication yet of who Chelle considers his core first team.

Madagascar arrive in Uyo with some momentum of their own. Their domestic-based side reached the final of the recent African Nations Championship, and senior coach Corentin Martins has retained established players including Rayan Raveloson, Marco Ilaimaharitra and Loïc Lapoussin for the start of AFCON qualifying.

Super Eagles off to a flyer

Chelle's message to his players this week has been shaped by what happened in Nigeria's last qualifying campaign. Before the Malian's arrival, the Super Eagles failed to win any of their opening four games in 2026 World Cup qualifying, drawing with Lesotho, Zimbabwe and South Africa before losing away to Benin.

By the time Chelle was appointed in January 2025, Nigeria were already in crisis mode, shipping water and desperately trying to recover. They almost did.

Under Chelle, the Super Eagles won four and drew two of their remaining six group qualifiers, including a 4-0 rout of Benin on the final day that sent them into the CAF playoffs.

They then beat Gabon 4-1 after extra time before their World Cup hopes ended with a penalty shootout defeat to DR Congo.

Chelle has otherwise proved difficult to beat. Through his first 25 senior internationals, Nigeria went 16-8-1, with the only regulation-time defeat coming against Egypt in a pre-AFCON friendly in December 2025.

But the lesson this team would have learnt from that World Cup qualifying is that recovering from a bad start can leave too much dependent on results elsewhere.

The qualification format this time makes that danger much clearer and even greater. With Tanzania already assured of a place at the finals, Nigeria, Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau are effectively competing for one remaining ticket from Group L.

That makes the opening doubleheader an opportunity for Nigeria to establish control immediately.

"We have to show everyone from Day One that we want it, and the only way to do that is to go for it with our hearts, and refuse to slow down at any point," Chelle said Wednesday.

"We must go for the points without any hesitation."

Six points from Madagascar at home and Guinea-Bissau away would give Nigeria exactly the start they failed to produce in World Cup qualifying.

Welcome back, Nwabali

Stanley Nwabali is back in the squad alongside Maduka Okoye and Arthur Okonkwo, giving Nigeria three goalkeepers with legitimate claims to the starting position.

Okoye arrived in camp on the eve of the game, due to pre-scheduled club-related activities where he helped Napoli launch their third kit at the Milan Fashion Show. This has compromised his chances of starting and effectively left Nwabali and Okonkwo with the preparation advantage.

Okonkwo is still relatively new to international football, with just two previous appearances under his belt after making his Nigeria debut in the Unity Cup where he kept two clean sheets in the two games he played, a 2-0 semifinal victory over Zimbabwe and a 3-0 win over Jamaica in the final.

Nwabali, however, offers considerably more international experience and has already been through major AFCON and World Cup qualifying games. His return also provides an opportunity to see where he stands after a period away from the national team, both in his ability but also in his head space.

At his best, Nwabali has provided Nigeria with an assertive presence behind the defence. His performances were one of the stories of Nigeria's run to the 2023 AFCON final. But there were also signs of inconsistency before his absence from the team.

With Okonkwo now offering credible competition and Okoye still part of the picture, Nwabali no longer has an uncontested path to the shirt. Friday should provide the first indication of how Chelle currently sees the hierarchy.

Who will emulate Osimhen?

Osimhen will miss both qualifiers while recovering from a muscle injury suffered playing for Galatasaray. But despite having one of the largest array of strikers playing in Europe, Nigeria have struggled to find goals without the Galatasaray man.

The numbers from the last World Cup qualifying series demonstrate the size of the hole he leaves. Osimhen scored eight of Nigeria's 15 goals in just seven appearances across the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign, including the CAF playoffs. That is just over 53% of the Eagles goals.

Even that barely tells the full story as the significance of those strikes extended well beyond the goal total. Nigeria won five and drew two of the seven World Cup qualifiers in which Osimhen played. In the five he missed, the Super Eagles did not win, drawing four and losing one.

Historically, Nigeria have never lost a game in which Osimhen has scored across his 35 international goals. In the 22 matches where the forward has scored for Nigeria, the Suoper Eagles have emerged with 17 wins, 5 five draws and zero losses, a 77.3% win clip, 100% unbeaten rate and 2.55 points per game.

In total, Nigeria scored 66 goals in those 22 matches, an average of three goals per game. Osimhen supplied 34 of the 66, or 51.5%.

Even in competitive games where Osimhen played but did not score, Nigeria still came out with a net positive of 12 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in 23 matches amounting to a 52.2% win rate.

That is the Osimhen-sized problem that Chelle has to solve against Madagascar and going forward with the rest of his strike force.

His current options now are Akor Adams, Tolu Arokodare, Taiwo Awoniyi, Ademola Lookman, George Ilhenikena and Moses Usor.

Adams and Arokodare provide experienced options through the middle, while Ademola Lookman and Samuel Chukwueze can supply goals from wider positions. Awoniyi also provides additional central options along with the newcomers.

Adams has already delivered in a major game under Chelle, scoring the opening goal against Gabon in the World Cup playoff semifinal before Osimhen scored twice in extra time.

The Super Eagles have certainly never been lacking in attacking options. What they have yet to establish is how and whether those options can collectively replace the goals Osimhen provides when qualification points are at stake.

Centurion Simon

Moses Simon could join one of the most exclusive clubs in Nigerian football on Friday. The Paris FC forward is on 99 FIFA-recognized appearances for Nigeria and will reach 100 if he plays against Madagascar.

Only four players have previously reached the landmark for the Super Eagles: Ahmed Musa, Vincent Enyeama, Joseph Yobo and Alex Iwobi.

Iwobi became the fourth when he made his 100th appearance against Portugal in June and was presented with a commemorative plaque before kickoff.

Simon would be the fifth and the NFF have already said he would be honoured appropriately.

"The Nigeria Football Federation has concluded arrangements to honour Super Eagles' ace forward Moses Simon, who will win his 100th cap for Nigeria at senior level if he is featured in Friday's 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying match against Madagascar," said Director of Communication, Ademola Olajire in a statement.

Unlike the other centurions, his journey has attracted considerably less attention. The nimble-footed forward played his first match for the Super Eagles on 25th March 2015, and amassed 99 caps during which he scored 12 goals.

In those 99 appearances, the Super Eagles have won 49 times when he was involved, drawn 30 times, while 20 games were lost. Simon has been involved in 64 competitive matches and 35 friendly games.

He has featured in a total of 23 matches for Nigeria at the AFCON finals, and played in 22 FIFA World Cup qualifying matches.

While there is no guarantee that Chelle will start him against Madagascar given the competition for places in attack, even a substitute appearance will be enough, and it is hard to imagine he will not get it seeing as it is a home game.