Texans face troubling trend when they play without Nico Collins

HOUSTON -- The absence of Pro Bowl wideout Nico Collins has created a trend for the Houston Texans.

In the last three games, including the playoffs, that Collins has missed because of injury, Houston's ability to score has been a mixed bag. Even though quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 353 yards last week, the Texans (0-2) lost 20-6 to the Cincinnati Bengals without Collins (hamstring), and Houston has averaged 16 points in that span.

Coach DeMeco Ryans understands how vital their No. 1 wideout is to the success of the offense, but he's challenging others to step up.

"Everyone knows Nico is one of the top receivers in the league," Ryans said. "A lot of guys have to step up to fill that void left by Nico. The bottom line is everybody is here, everybody gets paid to go make plays. We have to find a way to do that. We definitely, of course, miss Nico. When you have such an explosive threat in Nico, it's hard on a defense."

He also didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday as Houston prepared to travel to face the winless Indianapolis Colts on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). That usually is an indication in Houston that he won't play as the Texans tend to be cautious with soft tissue injuries.

Collins rested in the Week 18 finale against the Colts last season, and Stroud and other starters didn't play in the second half of the 38-30 win. But in the last three games when Collins was injured and didn't play, Stroud averaged 294 passing yards per game and threw three touchdowns with five interceptions -- four coming in their playoff loss to the New England Patriots.

Houston has struggled to find a receiver to step up in Collins' absence. In those three games, no receiver has eclipsed 70 receiving yards, and only three have gone over 55 in Xavier Hutchinson (69) against the San Francisco 49ers in 2025, Jaylin Noel in that same game (63), and Jayden Higgins (59) -- who is expected to miss the season -- against the Patriots. Being without Higgins and Collins means the Texans are down their top two wide receivers.

In last week's loss to the Bengals, Houston failed to score a touchdown. Tight end Dalton Schultz had 140 yards on 12 catches, but when it came time to beat man coverage, the wideouts struggled -- as Stroud went 8-of-20 for 102 yards against that coverage in Week 2. Kayshon Boutte (acquired in a trade before the season to help soften the blow after the loss of Higgins) and Hutchinson led the receiving corps with 37 yards a piece. 

One way to help overcome the loss of Collins, who had 7 receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown in the opener against the Buffalo Bills, is an effective running game to help keep them out of third-and-long situations where teams tend to play more man coverage.

Houston's 3.7 yards per carry ranks better than only nine teams, and the Colts have played man coverage on 50% of the snaps (third most this season) against third-and-7 or longer.

Stroud admitted following last week's loss that the key to winning is on third downs, as Houston went 5-of-17 in those situations. An important caveat is Stroud faced third-and-7 or longer on 12 of his 16 dropbacks and only converted two first downs.

"I think we just got to do a better job on the outside of just winning," Stroud said. "I think when we started to get in the flow of the game, started motioning, I think [Hutchinson] played great. I thought [Noel] did great. I thought [Jared Wayne] did good as well and of course, Boutte. It's tough sometimes when you don't get the call but you feel like you should. Can't rely on that. We have to be better."

Since being selected No. 2 in 2023, Stroud's QBR when targeting Collins is 91 with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 22-6. He has a QBR of 45 with a ratio of 48-25 when targeting anyone else. The biggest thing though is the red zone efficiency. Since the start of last season, the Texans rank last in red zone touchdown percentage (46% -- league average is 58%). But in those three games without Collins, the Texans' percentage sinks to 15%.

But Stroud is optimistic as they head into Week 3.

"I think it'll be a lot better," Stroud said. "Of course, a player like Nico, his presence is always felt when he's on the field. It's tough not having him, but I think this week could be better. We had a great day of practice today. We'll be able to hopefully take what we did in practice and execute on Sunday."